Bitcoin Aims to Reclaim $104,400 Support Amid Transitional Period

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown resilience this week, recovering from its recent dip below the $100,000 mark and attempting to establish the $108,000 resistance level as support for the fourth time. As the second half of 2025 approaches, market analysts are sharing their forecasts for the cryptocurrency's future.

On Thursday, analyst Rekt Capital outlined a roadmap for BTC for the remainder of the year. He noted that this cycle has been characterized by "re-accumulation ranges," which have formed since the end of 2022 and evolved following the Bitcoin Halving last year. During the pre-halving period, BTC experienced brief price deviations with downside wicks below the re-accumulation range lows on the weekly chart. Post-halving, these deviations have occurred with multi-week clusters of full-bodied candles below the range lows.

For example, after its first price discovery uptrend, which lasted around seven weeks, BTC moved within its re-accumulation range for about ten weeks. It then transitioned into the first Price Discovery Correction, recording a nine-week downside deviation below the range lows before breaking out and rallying past the range highs toward a new all-time high last month. Its past performances suggested that BTC was ready to enter its second Price Discovery Uptrend. However, Rekt Capital detailed that a transitional period has occurred for the first time, with price consolidating around the re-accumulation range high area.

According to the analyst, this is “perhaps the first time that we’re seeing a deviation occur below the range high,” making this area a crucial level to transition into a new uptrend. The key level for Bitcoin to reclaim in the weekly timeframe is the $104,400 support, which it held for nearly seven weeks before the recent pullbacks. This level was lost after BTC closed last week below it and “should not become a resistance level.”

To the analyst, it’s key that this week’s close solidifies the price recovery as it would position the cryptocurrency for a retest and confirmation of $104,400 as support and continue the build the base around this area to transition into the next multi-week Price Discovery Uptrend. Rekt Capital added that the timeline for BTC’s next uptrend will depend on the length of the new transitional period. However, he believes that it will take “a bit longer” to break out.

Additionally, he suggested that what comes after the upcoming uptrend will also depend on how long it takes, as it could lead to an extended cycle or a prolongation of this phase, which could push the cycle peak into deeper stages of 2025. Nonetheless, the analyst affirmed that it’s crucial that the next corrective period, which could see Bitcoin drop between 25% to 33%, is short to potentially enjoy a third Price Discovery Uptrend before the bear market.

As of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,555, a 3.2% increase in the weekly timeframe. The analyst's forecast suggests that Bitcoin is in a transitional period, with the potential for a new uptrend depending on how it navigates the current price levels and the duration of the transitional phase. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the cryptocurrency's trajectory as it aims to establish new support levels and potentially reach new all-time highs.