Bitcoin Aims for $117,000 as On-Chain Data Signals Bullish Breakout

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, trading between $78,000 and $110,000. However, several technical signals suggest a potential bullish recovery. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH), a key on-chain analysis indicator, identifies a strategic threshold at $117,113. This level is considered the upper boundary of short-term price action, according to Glassnode data. A daily close above this resistance could validate a breakout toward $117,000, or even $130,000 in some scenarios.

The primary trigger for the current bullish tension lies in on-chain data analysis, particularly the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis. This metric, which corresponds to the average price paid by investors who acquired BTC less than 155 days ago, acts as a leading indicator of market sentiment. Glassnode specifies that this threshold “represents the upper boundary of short-term price action.” This boundary was only reached once last May, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high around $112,000. Today, this level could shift and precisely be at $117,113.

Several factors help to understand why this threshold is now considered a key level to watch. The recent price history shows that since January, BTC has been moving within a clearly defined range between $78,000 and $110,000, without decisively breaking out. The past reaction to the threshold indicates that the $112,000 level, close to the current $117,000, coincided with the historical peak in May. The psychological role of the STH cost basis is significant as long as the BTC price remains above the average cost of short-term holders, they generally remain profitable, which tends to strengthen the market’s bullish conviction. Glassnode’s data considers this threshold to be “the upper limit of short-term price action,” making it a natural target in case of a technical breakout.

This convergence of factors therefore places the $117,000 mark as a strategic short-term technical target for Bitcoin. Beyond the on-chain data, the attention of technical analysts is now focused on a decisive price zone: $109,000 to $110,000, identified as a potential breakout line by several market figures. Analyst Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin is “retesting its multi-month descending trendline.” Furthermore, he wonders: “how many more rejections before Bitcoin finally breaks out?” In the supporting chart published, this descending trendline constitutes a major resistance, and only a daily close above it would validate a bullish breakout.

Another well-known analyst estimates that BTC could target $130,000 if a close establishes above the upper bound of the “bull flag” at $110,000. He bases this on a measured target derived from the current chart configuration. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), on its side, still gives momentum to this projection. The overheating zone has not yet been reached: it is around $123,000, implying that the market has not yet reached an excessive valuation level according to this metric. The conjunction of a strong on-chain signal with a tight technical setup reinforces the prospect of a strong forthcoming directional move. If a breakout occurs, an extension toward $117,000 seems plausible, and some analysts even target $130,000 in case of a clear breakout.