Bitcoin Adoption and Speculative Demand: How Polymarket's Bitcoin Deposit Feature Fuels Retail Betting and Price Momentum

The launch of Polymarket's Bitcoin deposit feature on October 6, 2025, marked a pivotal moment in the intersection of prediction markets and cryptocurrency speculation. By enabling users to directly fund trades with BTC, the platform expanded liquidity and accessibility, catalyzing a surge in retail participation and reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a speculative asset. This analysis examines how the feature amplified trading volume, shifted trader sentiment, and created feedback loops with Bitcoin's price momentum.

Polymarket's Bitcoin Deposit Feature: A Catalyst for Liquidity and Accessibility

Prior to October 2025, Polymarket primarily relied on USDC and other stablecoins across Ethereum, Polygon, and Solana. The introduction of Bitcoin deposits allowed users to leverage BTC holdings directly, bypassing the need for stablecoin conversions and reducing friction in speculative trading, as Cryptopolitan reported Cryptopolitan. This move coincided with Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $126,000, creating a tailwind for platforms facilitating BTC-based speculation.

The immediate impact was striking: Polymarket's trading volume surged by 43% in the 30 days post-launch, reaching $1.5 billion, while monthly active users grew by 25% to 259,000, according to CoinCentral CoinCentral. These figures outpace pre-launch benchmarks, such as $917 million in October 2024 and $1.16 billion in June 2025, as reported by Bitcoin.com News Bitcoin.com. The feature's success underscores a growing demand for Bitcoin-native financial tools, particularly among retail traders seeking to capitalize on price volatility.

Price Momentum and Speculative Demand: A Symbiotic Relationship

Bitcoin's price trajectory in late 2025 reveals a clear correlation with Polymarket's trading activity. Post-launch, traders assigned a 60% probability to Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by November 1, 2025, and a 71% probability of hitting $126,000 in October, according to The Block The Block. These odds reflect heightened bullish sentiment, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

The platform's data also highlights a feedback loop between speculative demand and price action. For instance, the "What price" market saw $5 million in volume for the $1,000,000 target, illustrating how prediction markets amplify retail confidence in extreme price scenarios the 'What price' market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price surged in tandem with Polymarket's volume spikes, suggesting that increased trading activity on the platform contributed to broader market optimism.

Trader Sentiment: Bullish Optimism Amid Caution

While Polymarket's data reflects strong bullishness, trader sentiment remains nuanced. A 57% probability was assigned to Bitcoin dipping below $100,000 by 2026, indicating caution around macroeconomic risks like U.S. trade policy uncertainties, according to Cointelegraph Cointelegraph. However, this caution coexists with aggressive price targets: 35% of traders bet on $150,000 by year-end, and 52% on $140,000, according to OKX OKX. Such divergence underscores the dual role of Bitcoin as both a speculative asset and a hedge against traditional market volatility.

The Fear and Greed Index, which remained in "Fear/Neutral" territory despite Bitcoin's record highs, further illustrates this duality. Retail traders are balancing optimism about Bitcoin's long-term potential with short-term risk aversion, a dynamic Polymarket's platform now amplifies through BTC-native betting, as FinanceFeeds reported FinanceFeeds.

Implications for Bitcoin Adoption and Market Infrastructure

Polymarket's Bitcoin deposit feature is more than a technical upgrade-it's a strategic move to democratize access to speculative markets. By reducing barriers to entry, the platform has attracted a broader user base, including those previously hesitant to convert BTC into stablecoins. This shift aligns with broader trends in DeFi, where native asset utilization is key to expanding use cases beyond simple value storage.

Moreover, the feature's success signals growing institutional interest in prediction markets. Polymarket's recent $200 million funding round and CFTC regulatory clarity position it to compete with platforms like Kalshi, potentially reshaping how market sentiment is priced and traded, according to Techopedia Techopedia. For Bitcoin, this means increased on-chain activity and liquidity, further entrenching its role as a global speculative benchmark.

Conclusion

Polymarket's Bitcoin deposit feature has proven to be a catalyst for retail-driven speculative demand, directly influencing trading volume and price momentum. By enabling BTC-native betting, the platform has lowered friction, amplified bullish sentiment, and created a feedback loop with Bitcoin's price action. While caution persists, the data suggests that prediction markets are becoming integral to Bitcoin's ecosystem, offering real-time sentiment gauges and liquidity conduits. As adoption accelerates, the interplay between platforms like Polymarket and Bitcoin's price trajectory will only deepen, redefining how retail and institutional players navigate the crypto landscape.