Bitcoin Accumulation Surges 3,090 BTC Withdrawn From Exchanges

Bitcoin’s recent bullish momentum has been marked by significant accumulation, with over 3,090 BTC, valued at approximately $325 million, withdrawn from major exchanges in a single day. This trend of large exchange outflows suggests a continued bullish accumulation pressure. The MVRV ratio, a key metric for identifying market tops, currently stands at 2.33, which is below the 2.75 threshold historically associated with aggressive profit-taking. This indicates that Bitcoin remains in a neutral-to-undervalued zone, offering more room for upward movement.

Despite the bullish indicators, there are potential challenges on the horizon. The NVT ratio, which compares market cap to transaction volume, has surged to 485.13, a level rarely seen in previous market cycles. This high NVT ratio suggests potential overvaluation, as the price has been trending upward without a corresponding increase in network usage. This discrepancy indicates that speculative flows may be dominating the market, which could lead to short-term overvaluation.

Open Interest in the derivatives market has surged by 8.32% to $34.87 billion, pointing to rising activity and speculation on bullish continuation. However, elevated Open Interest also indicates higher liquidation risk if the price reverses. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has surged by 76.12%, but the current value of 0.17 remains low compared to historical thresholds. This suggests that miners are not exerting meaningful sell pressure, which is a positive sign for the market. However, the Supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has risen by 7.22%, indicating a modest increase in coin movement among long-term holders. This metric typically spikes aggressively when long-term holders begin to sell in large volumes, but the current mild increase shows that conviction remains strong among veteran investors.

The 0–1 day Realized Cap HODL Wave stands at 0.274, reinforcing the view that short-term speculative activity remains subdued. This metric tracks the proportion of realized cap held by recent entrants, and low values typically indicate that the rally is not being driven by rapid buy-ins or pump-and-dump behaviors. Bitcoin’s daily chart reveals a well-formed cup and handle pattern, with the neckline resting near $107,000. This classic bullish structure suggests the potential for continuation if a breakout occurs. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $105,163.46, hovering just below the neckline. Volume has remained steady during the consolidation phase, and the RSI has not entered overbought territory, further supporting a bullish setup. A successful breakout could send Bitcoin to new highs, while rejection might trigger a minor pullback toward the $100K support. The breakout zone remains a critical area to monitor.

In summary, Bitcoin’s rally is well-supported by strong on-chain and technical signals, including exchange outflows, low MVRV, restrained miner selling, and weak short-term speculation. However, the NVT spike above 485 highlights a possible imbalance between valuation and network activity. As Bitcoin approaches a key resistance level, the market’s next move will depend on whether buyers can sustain momentum or whether overvaluation concerns will prompt a pullback. For now, accumulation trends dominate the narrative, tilting the bias in favor of continued upside.