Bitcoin's Accumulation Phase Ends as Exchange Reserves Rise 3.45%

Bitcoin’s 60-day Realized Cap Variance (RCV) has exited its low-risk accumulation zone, signaling a shift in market dynamics. Previously, negative RCV levels paired with upward price momentum triggered buy signals. However, with the disappearance of these buy flags and the absence of a sell trigger, the market is transitioning from an optimal accumulation phase to a more cautious state. Despite strong 30-day momentum, the growing RCV levels suggest reduced reward potential for new long entries, especially as Bitcoin trades above $109,000.

Exchange Reserve USD has increased by 3.45% to over $273 billion, indicating a potential rise in selling pressure. A higher reserve means more coins are available on exchanges, often preceding increased volatility or downward corrections. This trend aligns with market participants preparing to offload holdings at higher prices, reflecting a strategic shift among holders as favorable accumulation conditions fade. If this trend continues, the likelihood of near-term price headwinds could grow stronger across major trading platforms.

Miners and whales are also exhibiting cautious behavior. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) spiked over 96%, indicating increased miner outflows, though values remain slightly negative. Simultaneously, the Exchange Whale Ratio reflects consistent top-holder inflows to exchanges. Historically, these dynamics signal reduced market conviction from key participants, hinting at a distribution phase taking shape. Current market participants should closely monitor wallet flows, especially from high-impact players, as they often precede broader trend reversals in Bitcoin’s price structure.

Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has surged 3.88% to 2.32, showing that a majority of holders are now sitting on significant unrealized gains. When this ratio rises above 2, it often signals that investors are increasingly tempted to secure profits. The higher this metric climbs, the more vulnerable the market becomes to a pullback. While it doesn’t confirm an imminent correction, it does suggest that the upside may face headwinds from internal selling pressure. Traders should remain alert, as even mild shifts in sentiment could activate widespread selling in an overheated market environment.

On-chain valuation indicators show diverging signals. The NVT Ratio dropped over 31%, while the NVM Ratio declined nearly 24%, suggesting improved transaction activity relative to BTC’s market cap. Normally, this points to increased network efficiency. However, the decline may also signal a disconnect, where market valuation exceeds actual usage. This creates a subtle imbalance that could challenge current price levels if not corrected by stronger transactional throughput. As a result, while the surface activity looks positive, underlying utility trends remain too uncertain to confirm full bullish conviction across the board.

Bitcoin remains in a momentum-driven uptrend, but risk signals are starting to surface. The disappearance of buy signals, rising exchange reserves, cautious miner behavior, and elevated MVRV all suggest a potential turning point. While not in full distribution mode yet, the market is no longer in its accumulation phase. Traders should now focus on protecting gains, watching for a confirmed sell trigger, and avoiding overexposure as Bitcoin’s risk-reward profile continues to evolve.