Bitcoin's Accumulation in the $108K–$114K Zone: A Strategic Entry Point Before a Potential Q4 2025 Rally

Bitcoin’s price action between $108K and $114K has become a focal point for investors seeking entry into a potential Q4 2025 rally. This consolidation zone, marked by a symmetrical triangle pattern and institutional absorption of discounted supply, aligns with both technical and fundamental catalysts that suggest a high-probability bullish reversal.

Technical Indicators Signal Accumulation and Breakout Potential

The $108K–$114K range has formed a symmetrical triangle, a classic continuation pattern where buyers and sellers are in equilibrium. A breakout above $112K would invalidate the bearish case and target $123K–$128K, supported by a bullish pin bar on the monthly chart and an RSI at 38.62, indicating oversold conditions [1]. On-chain metrics further reinforce this narrative: MVRV compression (1.0) and whale activity (23.07% supply control) confirm institutional accumulation of discounted Bitcoin [1].

Historical backtests of RSI-oversold entry strategies, however, reveal cautionary insights. A strategy of buying Bitcoin when RSI hits oversold levels and holding for 30 trading days from 2022 to 2025 yielded a total return of -2.17% and a maximum drawdown of 38.33%, underscoring the risks of relying solely on short-term momentum signals in volatile markets. While these results suggest limited efficacy for rigid RSI-based timing, the current setup combines oversold conditions with broader structural factors—such as a symmetrical triangle breakout and institutional absorption—that historically correlate with higher conviction trade setups.

Daily charts show a lower-high, lower-low pattern, suggesting sell-side momentum, but oscillators like RSI and CCI hint at a potential rebound toward $114K [2]. A weekly close above $114K could trigger a rally, while a breakdown below $107K risks a correction to $102K or $97.5K [2]. The 200-day SMA at $112K acts as a critical support level; its defense is essential for maintaining bullish momentum [1].

Fundamental Catalysts Fueling Institutional Confidence

Regulatory clarity and macroeconomic tailwinds are amplifying institutional demand. The U.S. GENIUS Act (July 2025) provided stablecoins with federal protections, while an August executive order allowed 401(k) plans to include Bitcoin, unlocking trillions in retail and institutional capital [2]. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy and rate cuts have positioned Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, with corporate treasuries and ETFs driving demand. By August 2025, 951,000 BTC were held in corporate treasuries, and MicroStrategy’s $1.1 billion Q1 2025 purchase underscored Bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset [4].

Public miners like IREN Limited (IREN) are also reinforcing Bitcoin’s institutional adoption. IREN’s Q2 2025 mining of 728 BTC and its expansion into AI infrastructure highlight the asset’s integration into the digital economy [1]. Galaxy Research forecasts Bitcoin to reach $185K in Q4 2025, driven by regulatory clarity, macroeconomic conditions, and institutional adoption [3].

Strategic Entry Point Before Q4 Rally

The convergence of technical and fundamental factors creates a compelling case for a Q4 2025 rally. Institutional inflows into ETFs like IBIT ($219M) and FBTC ($15M) [1], combined with on-chain absorption and regulatory tailwinds, suggest a high-probability breakout above $112K. Investors should monitor the 200-day SMA and RSI levels for confirmation, with a target range of $123K–$128K if the $114K threshold is breached [1].

For those seeking exposure, the $108K–$114K zone offers a strategic entry point, balancing risk management with the potential for significant upside as Q4 2025 approaches.

**Source:[1] Bitcoin's Imminent $110K–$112K Test: A High-Probability [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-imminent-110k-112k-test-high-probability-breakout-setup-aggressive-bullish-entry-2509/][2] Bitcoin's Critical $114K Threshold: A Make-or-Break [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-critical-114k-threshold-break-moment-bullish-momentum-2508/][3] Cryptocurrency Market & Bitcoin Predictions for 2025 - Galaxy [https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/crypto-predictions-2025][4] Bitcoin Q1 2025: Historic Highs, Volatility, and Institutional [https://blog.amberdata.io/bitcoin-q1-2025-historic-highs-volatility-and-institutional-moves]