Bitcoin's $98k Threshold: The Search Volume Signal for a Sentiment Flip

The market's attention is locked on a single price: $98,000. This isn't just another technical level; it's the central catalyst for a potential sentiment flip, and the on-chain data shows why. The key players in this drama are the new Bitcoin investors who have been stuck in the red since November 2025. Glassnode's analysis shows new Bitcoin investors have continued to sit in net unrealized losses since November 2025. This creates a tense setup where even a short-term bounce could spark selling pressure, as these holders are eager to cut losses.

The critical threshold for these new investors to flip back into profit is around $98,000. Bitcoin would need to recover to around $98,000 or higher for the cohort of new investors to flip back into net unrealized profit. This level is more than a number; it's a psychological and structural inflection point. It represents the aggregate entry price for short-term holders-the ones who bought within the past 155 days. The aggregate entry price for recent investors is $98,300. In other words, the market is currently trading just below the average cost basis of its newest buyers.

This creates a powerful dynamic. For Bitcoin to rally sustainably, it must first reclaim and hold above this critical $98,000 zone. Doing so would signal a shift in market sentiment, moving new investors from a state of persistent loss to one of potential gain. It's the main character in today's story: the price level that must be conquered to unlock the next leg of the move.

Headline Risk: Old Money Still Selling at Record Rates

While the market fixates on the $98,000 level for new buyers, a more fundamental headwind is building from the opposite end of the holder spectrum. The entrenched investors-the so-called "OGs" who bought early and held through cycles-are still cashing out at some of the fastest rates in memory. This creates a persistent supply overhang that the market must absorb, regardless of short-term sentiment flips.

The scale of this distribution is staggering. More than two months after the token hit a record high, bitcoin has fallen nearly 30 per cent and is struggling to find support. One reason: long-time holders haven't stopped selling. According to blockchain data, the amount of bitcoin that had remained unmoved for at least two years has declined by 1.6 million coins since early 2023, roughly US$140 billion worth. This isn't a one-time event; it's a sustained bleed. In 2025 alone, nearly $300 billion worth of dormant bitcoin re-entered circulation, and the past month saw one of the heaviest long-term holder distributions in over five years.

This selling pressure is visible in corporate balance sheets, adding a layer of headline risk. Michael Saylor's company, Strategy, reported $17.44 billion in unrealized losses on digital assets in the fourth quarter of 2025. The slump in its stock price reflects how these massive unrealized losses on corporate bitcoin holdings can pressure earnings and investor confidence. The selling isn't just from retail; it's from the deep-pocketed holders who have been sitting on multi-thousand percent gains.

The key tension is that this supply is hitting a market with thinner liquidity. For much of the past year, ETF inflows and institutional demand absorbed this selling. Now, those flows have faded, and retail participation has thinned. The market is experiencing a slow bleed characterized by steady spot selling into thin bid liquidity. The pressure has been most acute since October, following a historic $19 billion in liquidations.

The good news, from a supply perspective, is that this selling may be nearing saturation. Analysts note that around 20 per cent of BTC supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and expectations are for OG selling to subside in 2026. But until that shift happens, this relentless distribution from old money remains a major headwind. For the $98,000 sentiment flip to hold, the market must not only reclaim that level but also start to soak up this deep, ongoing supply.

The Viral Sentiment Shift: Digital Asset Treasuries Are Done

The market's focus has shifted from the $98,000 level for new buyers to a more fundamental question: where is the demand coming from now? The answer is that a major source of institutional buying has likely dried up. The trend of firms using their balance sheets to accumulate Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset-known as Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)-is no longer the it-thing of crypto. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered thinks DATs are no longer the it-thing of crypto, and his analysis points to a clear reason: valuations have fallen too far to justify further corporate accumulation. Specifically, we think buying by Bitcoin digital asset treasury companies (DATs) is likely over, as valuations ... no longer support further Bitcoin.

This is a viral sentiment shift that's gaining traction in financial circles. The idea that companies like MicroStrategy were pioneering a new asset class by buying Bitcoin with cash flows has been a powerful narrative. Now, with Bitcoin trading around 30% below its all-time high, that story is fading. The implication is stark: a key pillar of institutional demand is gone. This removes a major source of steady, non-speculative buying and makes the market more reliant on two other drivers: spot Bitcoin ETF flows and retail sentiment.

The search interest and market attention around this shift are high, making it a catalyst for volatility. The narrative that DATs are over creates a new tension. If corporate balance sheets are done buying, what will support prices? The answer now points squarely to ETF inflows and the broader retail crowd. This is a setup where sentiment can swing quickly. A surge in ETF demand could provide a floor, while a loss of retail interest could accelerate a decline. The shift from corporate treasuries to ETFs and retail is not just a change in buyers; it's a change in the market's fundamental dynamics, and it's the hottest topic in crypto right now.

Catalysts & What to Watch: The $98k Test and ETF Flows

The market's attention is now laser-focused on a few key catalysts that will determine if Bitcoin's bottoming thesis holds. The immediate test is a technical and psychological one: can the price reclaim and hold above the $98,000 level? This isn't just any resistance; it's the aggregate entry price for short-term holders, the new buyers stuck in the red since November 2025. Glassnode's analysis shows new Bitcoin investors have continued to sit in net unrealized losses since November 2025. The aggregate entry price for recent investors is $98,300. For the market to flip sentiment, Bitcoin must not only break above this level but sustainably hold it. Historically, reclaiming and holding above the short-term holder cost basis has marked the transition from corrective phases into more durable uptrends. The search volume around this specific threshold is a direct signal of market attention on this inflection point.

With corporate digital asset treasuries now considered "no longer the it-thing of crypto," the main character for price support has shifted. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered thinks DATs are no longer the it-thing of crypto. This removes a major source of steady institutional buying, making spot Bitcoin ETF flows the critical new driver. The market is watching for signs of renewed accumulation through these vehicles. Recent data shows a positive signal, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logging a $753.73 million single-day inflow earlier this month-the largest in three months. This flow is now the primary institutional bid, and its continuation will be essential to absorb the ongoing supply from long-term holders.

Finally, watch for a slowdown in that relentless selling from old money. The pressure has been most acute since October, following a historic $19 billion in liquidations. More than two months after the token hit a record high, bitcoin has fallen nearly 30 per cent and is struggling to find support. One reason: long-time holders haven't stopped selling. The scale is staggering, with nearly $300 billion worth of dormant bitcoin re-entering circulation in 2025 alone. A key indicator will be whether the pace of long-term holder distribution, which recently hit one of its heaviest levels in over five years, begins to subside. If selling slows, it would signal the worst of the distribution phase is over, reducing the supply overhang that has been pressuring prices.

The setup is clear. The market must first conquer the $98k psychological barrier, then rely on ETF flows for support, while waiting for the OG selling to ease. The intensity of search interest around these specific catalysts will be a real-time gauge of whether the viral sentiment shift is translating into the capital flows needed for a sustained recovery.