"Bitcoin's $98K Struggle: Manipulation or Market Forces?"

Bitcoin's recent price struggles, with the cryptocurrency failing to maintain a foothold above $98,000 since February 6, have sparked speculation about the lack of bullish momentum. While some analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price is being manipulated, the reality is that multiple factors shape trader sentiment, including regulatory developments and global economic conditions.

Technical analyst James CryptoGuru raised concerns on January 10 about "massive market manipulation in crypto," alleging that Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were being used to "liquidate" traders by applying downward pressure on the asset's price while traditional financial markets remained closed. This strategy, according to CryptoGuru, involves driving Bitcoin's spot price lower to liquidate leveraged buyers—traders using derivative instruments like BTC futures. This would create temporary market disruptions, accelerating the downside move while these so-called "manipulators" accumulate Bitcoin and Ether at discounted prices.

While plausible, this approach carries significant risk, as Bitcoin's price movements during weekends and overnight sessions do not always align with trends once US markets open. A constant flow of news and data can shift investor sentiment, making large orders impactful in the short term but offering no guarantee that the effect will last beyond a few minutes or hours.

Other analysts, such as "Vincent Van Code," attribute cryptocurrency price crashes to "whale chat groups" using "sophisticated bots" and "war chests" exceeding $100 million. Some theories even suggest that Binance plays a role, either as a participant or mastermind behind seemingly coordinated price drops across multiple assets, including Bitcoin and XRP (XRP). While these rumors are entirely unproven, they cannot be ruled out. There is no way to confirm whether large entities collaborate or if Binance has direct ties to any market maker. However, even if some players have privileged access to liquidation levels and hidden orders on exchanges, strong incentives exist for them to front-run each other rather than act collectively.

In traditional markets, firms like Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Capital Group control 57% of open-end mutual funds and ETFs, according to Morningstar. With a combined $29 trillion in assets under management, their trades can easily influence markets across stocks, bonds, and commodities. In November 2024, Texas Attorney General Ken Pa