Bitcoin's $97K Surge: Can U.S.-China Trade Deals Push It to $100K?

Bitcoin’s recent surge to $97,714 on May 7, 2025, marks a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency. The rally, driven by optimism around U.S.-China trade negotiations, has reignited debates about whether Bitcoin can reclaim its all-time high of $109,241 set in January 2025—or even surpass it. But this isn’t just a story of geopolitical optimism. Technical charts, institutional sentiment, and macroeconomic crosscurrents are all at play.

The Trade Deal Catalyst

The primary driver of Bitcoin’s recent momentum is the prospect of a U.S.-China trade deal. With U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer preparing for talks in Switzerland, markets have priced in a 21% probability of a deal by June (via Polymarket). While that’s a cautious bet, traders are already voting with their wallets: FalconX reports surging institutional demand for call options at the $100,000 strike price.

The logic is clear: a reduction in tariffs and trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies would supercharge global risk appetite. Equity markets, the U.S. dollar, and even regional currencies like the New Taiwan Dollar (up 2% in May) have already reflected this optimism. Bitcoin, as a global “risk-on” asset, is no exception.

Technicals Matter—But So Do Technicals

Technical analysts point to a critical resistance zone between $93,000 and $95,000—a barrier Bitcoin briefly breached on May 7. Glassnode data highlights this range as a key battleground: breaking above it could unlock a path to $100,000, as short-term holders’ cost bases align with the 111-day moving average. However, failure here risks a return to consolidation or even a pullback to $85,000.

Institutional momentum adds another layer. New Hampshire’s recent approval of public funds investing in Bitcoin signals broader adoption, while TSMC’s 60% profit surge (boosting the New Taiwan Dollar) underscores Asia’s crypto-friendly economic tailwinds. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s expected pause on rate hikes on May 7 removes another uncertainty.

The Geopolitical Elephant in the Room

Traders have largely ignored geopolitical noise, such as India-Pakistan border clashes, focusing instead on macroeconomic stability. But risks linger. The 47% chance of U.S. tariff reductions by late May (per Polymarket) suggests skepticism remains. A failed deal could trigger a sharp Bitcoin correction, especially if the $93,000–$95,000 support breaks.

Conclusion: A $100K Milestone Hangs in the Balance

Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges on three factors:
1. Trade Deal Outcomes: A 21% probability of a deal is low, but markets often react to sentiment, not certainty. Even incremental progress could sustain momentum.
2. Technical Breakthroughs: Sustained trading above $95,000 would erase short-term resistance and signal a return to bullish trends.
3. Institutional Confidence: The $100,000 call option buying by FalconX clients suggests a floor at that level—if traders can hold the $93K–$95K zone.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience in volatile environments. Its January 2025 peak came amid Trump’s pro-crypto policies and a similar “risk-on” cycle. Today, with New Hampshire’s regulatory green light and global equities rallying, the crypto market has more institutional credibility than ever.

Yet caution is warranted. The $93K–$95K resistance isn’t just a number—it’s a litmus test for whether Bitcoin’s current rally is sustainable or a fleeting blip. Investors would be wise to monitor the 111-day moving average and trade deal headlines closely. A $100,000 retest is possible, but it won’t come without turbulence.

In short, Bitcoin’s next act is written in the ink of trade negotiations and technical charts. Stay vigilant—and keep an eye on that $95,000 line.