Bitcoin's $95K Breakout Hinges on Trump's April 29 Policy Play

Donald Trump’s upcoming speech on April 29 has intensified scrutiny over its potential impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The market, which has experienced significant volatility in the wake of Trump’s prior policy statements and executive actions, is now bracing for another pivotal moment. Bitcoin’s price currently consolidates below $96,000, a level that analysts view as critical for determining whether a new rally toward $100,000 or higher is feasible. Over $4.7 billion in BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges since mid-April, signaling reduced short-term liquidity and heightened sensitivity to demand shifts post-speech Cointelegraph.com^[2].

Trump’s second-term policies have already triggered mixed market reactions. His January 2025 executive order, which directed the formation of a working group to explore pro-crypto regulations and a strategic federal crypto reserve, initially drew optimism. However, Bitcoin’s price subsequently fell from a peak of $108,000 to $84,000 by March 2025, raising questions about whether the decline reflected regulatory uncertainty or a broader correction Oanda.com^[3]. The president’s recent emphasis on designating cryptocurrency as a national priority has further muddied the outlook, with market participants awaiting clarity on how his agenda will balance innovation with regulatory oversight Gadgets360.com^[1].

Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s path to a sustained rally depends on breaking key resistance levels. Analysts highlight the $95,000 threshold as a critical juncture, with repeated failed attempts to surpass this level increasing the likelihood of a breakthrough. AlphaBTC, a prominent Bitcoin analyst, noted that “the more attempts into the $95K, the more likely it will push through,” while fellow analyst Daan Crypto Trades emphasized the importance of the 200-day simple moving average ($89,500–$91,000) as a support zone Cointelegraph.com^[2]. Meanwhile, Peter Chung of Presto has maintained a bullish stance, predicting Bitcoin could reach $210,000 by 2025, though such forecasts remain speculative Cointelegraph.com^[2].

The market’s anticipation of Trump’s 100-day speech has also influenced broader macroeconomic dynamics. The Federal Reserve’s September 2024 rate cut and subsequent easing of inflationary pressures have created a more favorable environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, renewed focus on tariffs or fiscal austerity measures could cap Bitcoin’s upside, as seen in earlier corrections tied to trade policy announcements. Polymarket data indicates a 24% probability that Trump will mention “crypto” or “Bitcoin” in his speech, with over $1 million in bets placed on the outcome Cointelegraph.com^[2].

Institutional activity further underscores the market’s cautious optimism. Over $4.7 billion in BTC has been removed from exchanges since April 22, reducing the immediate supply available for trading and potentially amplifying price swings post-speech. CryptoQuant data highlights this trend, noting that lower exchange holdings typically correlate with increased price sensitivity to demand surges Cointelegraph.com^[2]. Additionally, the decline in Bitcoin futures open interest—down 12% month-on-month—suggests a cooling of speculative activity, which could either stabilize the market or signal a lack of conviction among traders Oanda.com^[3].

While Trump’s rhetoric has historically driven short-term price spikes, the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin remains contingent on broader economic and regulatory factors. The strategic crypto reserve proposal, which aims to include assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, has drawn both support and skepticism. Critics argue that using taxpayer funds for high-risk crypto investments could face congressional resistance, while proponents view it as a step toward legitimizing digital assets as part of the U.S. financial infrastructure Oanda.com^[3].

As the April 29 speech approaches, market participants are closely monitoring both Trump’s policy roadmap and global macroeconomic indicators. A clear pro-crypto stance could reignite bullish momentum, but conflicting priorities—such as tariffs or budget cuts—may temper gains. For now, the crypto market remains in a state of watchful anticipation, with Bitcoin’s next move likely hinging on whether Trump’s policies align with market expectations for innovation and growth.