Bitcoin's $94,000 Threshold Could Trigger $465 Million in Short Liquidation Pressure

Bitcoin has climbed to $90,000 as of 2026-01-05, nearing a critical level of $94,000. Analysts warn that a break above this threshold could trigger $465 million in cumulative short liquidation pressure on major centralized exchanges according to data.

The price move comes amid geopolitical developments, including U.S. military action in Venezuela, which has raised speculation about the future of the country's alleged 600,000 BTC holdings. These assets are seen as a potential long-term supply shock, with analysts predicting a 5–10 year freeze if the U.S. secures the keys according to reports.

Japan's recent hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan also raises concerns. Historically, Bitcoin has dropped 20–31% following each of the last three rate hikes, as liquidity drains from global risk assets due to the unwinding of yen carry trades according to analysis.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin's recent rally reflects both institutional and geopolitical shifts. Venezuela's Bitcoin holdings have drawn attention as a potential supply constraint. If the assets are frozen or used as part of a U.S. strategic reserve, they could support higher prices in 2026 according to research.

This development contrasts with typical conflict-driven sell-offs. The geopolitical event has instead reinforced Bitcoin's role as a hedge against traditional economic uncertainty according to analysis.

In parallel, BlackRock's U.S. Bitcoin ETF posted a $99 million daily outflow on January 1, 2026. This highlights institutional caution amid broader market volatility and shifting regulatory expectations according to market data.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin's price has surged in response to the Venezuela-related uncertainty, with the asset exceeding $90,000 and the broader crypto market adding $100 billion in market capitalization according to reports.

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela also triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, with analysts estimating a potential $17.3 trillion oil price shock. This shift could lower inflation and ease pressure on the U.S. dollar, indirectly supporting Bitcoin as a store of value according to market analysis.

The political fallout has extended to prediction markets, where a trader made $400,000 from a bet on Maduro's capture. This has led to legislative scrutiny, with U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres planning to introduce a bill to restrict insider trading on such platforms according to reports.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, which could influence Bitcoin's price through interest rate expectations. A slower-than-expected tightening cycle might support risk assets, including crypto according to analysts.

The Bank of Japan's next rate decision on January 23 will be a key event. If a hike is confirmed, it could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, historically linked to Bitcoin price drops according to market analysis.

Investors are also watching how Venezuela's Bitcoin holdings evolve. The outcome could either lock up supply for years or trigger a liquidity event, depending on legal and political developments according to reports.

As the first half of 2026 unfolds, Bitcoin faces a mix of institutional, geopolitical, and monetary headwinds. Traders will assess how these factors interact, with price action around $94,000 and $100,000 serving as critical indicators for the year ahead according to market analysis.