Bitcoin's $91,000 Surge: Is This the Start of a New Bull Cycle?

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, but Bitcoin's recent surge to $91,000 in late 2025 has sparked a critical question: Is this the dawn of a new bull cycle? To answer this, we must dissect the interplay of technical momentum and macroeconomic catalysts shaping Bitcoin's trajectory.

Technical Momentum: A Mixed Signal

Bitcoin's price action in 2025 reveals a complex narrative. In May 2025, the asset peaked at $126,000, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) displayed bearish divergence-a classic warning sign of waning momentum and an impending reversal. This divergence, where price highs outpace RSI highs, suggests that the rally lacked conviction. However, the subsequent correction to the mid-$80,000 range in late 2025, triggered by the passage of the GENIUS Act, created a critical support zone. Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.5 and 0.618 acted as buy zones, stabilizing the price and setting the stage for a rebound.

By December 2025, Bitcoin had consolidated between $85,000 and $100,000, with Bollinger Bands tightening-a technical indicator of impending volatility. Short-term analysis in early 2026 shows the price within a rising trend channel, supported by a $87,639 floor and capped by $93,855 resistance. While the RSI remains upward-trending, the medium-term outlook is clouded by the proximity to $93,000, a level that could either trigger a breakout or a pullback.

On-chain metrics add nuance. Institutional adoption, particularly through ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT, has absorbed over $50 billion in assets under management, creating sustained buy-side pressure. Large holders have also curtailed aggressive selling, signaling a shift toward accumulation rather than distribution. These factors suggest a structural bullish bias, even as technical indicators remain cautiously balanced.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: A Tenuous Link

Bitcoin's price in 2025 has been less a function of traditional macroeconomic logic and more a reflection of liquidity dynamics. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance-keeping rates elevated despite inflation persistently above 2%-has complicated Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge. A report by notes that Bitcoin's muted response to rate cuts in late 2025 exposed this disconnect, as the asset failed to rally despite reduced opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets.

However, the broader picture is nuanced. argue that the pace and scale of Fed rate cuts in 2026 will be pivotal. A dovish pivot could inject liquidity into risk assets, including crypto, by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging speculative capital flows. Yet, if rate cuts signal economic fragility rather than inflation control, they could erode risk appetite, undermining Bitcoin's appeal. This duality underscores the fragility of macroeconomic tailwinds for Bitcoin.

Synthesis: A Bull Cycle in the Making?

The $91,000 surge must be viewed through a dual lens. Technically, Bitcoin is navigating a consolidation phase with tightening Bollinger Bands and institutional-driven accumulation. However, the bearish RSI divergence in May 2025 and the unresolved $93,000 resistance level suggest caution. On the macroeconomic front, Bitcoin's reliance on liquidity conditions and institutional adoption-rather than inflation or interest rates-highlights a shift in its value proposition.

For a new bull cycle to materialize, Bitcoin must break above $93,000 and sustain momentum, supported by a dovish Fed and continued ETF inflows. If the RSI aligns with price action and on-chain metrics confirm accumulation, the $91,000 level could mark the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Conversely, a failure to clear key resistance or a reversal in macroeconomic conditions could relegate this surge to a short-lived countertrend rally.

In the end, the answer lies in the interplay of these forces. Investors must monitor both technical signals and macroeconomic shifts, as neither operates in isolation. The $91,000 level is a threshold-a potential inflection point in a market where history rarely repeats, but patterns persist.