Is Bitcoin's $90K Rebound a Sustainable Bottom or a Bull Trap in 2026?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has sparked a heated debate: Is the $90,000 level a resilient floor for 2026, or a deceptive bull trap masking deeper structural fragility? To answer this, we must dissect the interplay between bullish narratives-rooted in network upgrades and miner adaptation-and bearish realities, such as declining hashprice and eroding transaction volumes.

The Bullish Case: Network Resilience and Miner Adaptation

Bitcoin's hashrate surge to 1.15 ZH/s in October 2025 underscores a critical narrative: the network's infrastructure is evolving. Energy-efficient ASICs like the Antminer S21 now account for 20% of total hashrate, signaling a shift toward cost-optimized mining. This technological progress, coupled with miners' pivot to AI and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure, suggests a sector adapting to economic headwinds.

Moreover, the mining difficulty reaching an all-time high in Q4 2025 reflects sustained investment in hardware, which could stabilize the network's security. For bullish investors, this represents a "flight to quality," where miners prioritize efficiency to weather Bitcoin's price volatility.

The Bearish Case: Structural Weaknesses and Profitability Squeezes

Yet, the data tells a more nuanced story. Hashprice-a metric reflecting the value of securing the network-has plummeted from $50 per PH/s/day in Q2 2025 to $35 by year-end, a 30% decline. This erosion mirrors Bitcoin's 30% price drop from its October peak, exposing a fragile equilibrium between miner costs and revenue.

Publicly listed miners now face average cash costs of $137,800 per bitcoin mined when including non-cash expenses, far above the $90,000 price level. This creates a "cost floor" scenario: if Bitcoin remains below this threshold, miners may be forced to liquidate BTC holdings to cover operational costs, exacerbating downward pressure.

Transaction volumes further complicate the bullish case. Daily transactions fell 8% in Q4 2025, while fees dropped to less than 1% of total block rewards. A network reliant on block subsidies rather than user demand raises questions about its long-term utility. If Bitcoin's price rebound in late 2025 is driven by speculative inflows rather than organic adoption, the risk of a "bull trap"-a false breakout that lures buyers into a subsequent selloff-remains high.

The 2026 Outlook: A Tug-of-War Between Optimism and Realism

The coming year will hinge on two variables:
1. Miner Survival: Can miners offset declining BTC prices by monetizing AI/HPC infrastructure? If so, the network's security might hold even at $90,000.
2. User Activity: Will transaction volumes rebound as Bitcoin's price stabilizes, or will the network remain a "store of value" asset with minimal utility?

For now, the data suggests a precarious balance. The hashrate's growth and miner diversification offer hope, but low hashprice, high cash costs, and declining fees indicate a system under strain.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $90K rebound is neither a definitive bottom nor a guaranteed bull trap-it is a crossroads. Investors must weigh the optimism of a resilient network against the reality of structural weaknesses. In 2026, the answer will depend on whether Bitcoin's on-chain metrics align with its price action or diverge further.