Bitcoin's 9% Drawdown Results in $200 Million Realized Losses

Bitcoin's recent dip to $100,000 has not weakened market structure but rather strengthened it, according to on-chain data. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $109,500, following a 4% climb on June 9 to reach a weekly high of $110,600. The 9% drawdown from the June 7 record high of $111,965 resulted in only $200 million in realized losses, significantly lower than previous corrections in this cycle.

Most of the exits during this period came from holders with Bitcoin younger than one week, indicating that recent entrants were the ones capitulating rather than seasoned investors. Loss-taking by addresses that held Bitcoin for more than three months stood at zero during the move. This suggests that long-term holders are retaining their supply, which is an uncommon pattern in late-cycle conditions. The report attributes this stickier supply to exchange-traded fund (ETF) custody programs and other institutional channels that remove coins from liquid circulation.

The realized profit-loss ratio for long-term holders reached 9.4, a threshold exceeded on fewer than 16% of trading days since 2011 and typically associated with euphoria. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows a dense band of coins acquired around $100,000 to $103,000. The price now sits at the upper edge of that cluster, with relatively light historical volume above it, creating an “air gap” region that may allow rapid moves if demand persists.

Realized Supply Density, which measures the share of supply with a cost basis near the spot price, has increased alongside the recent rally, indicating heightened sensitivity. Options traders appear unconcerned, as at-the-money implied volatility across both short and long tenors continues to fall, a posture that has preceded volatility spikes in past cycles. The report noted the contrast as a potential setup for larger moves if the price retests the all-time high.

For now, the muted reaction to last week’s decline and the swift recovery above $100,000 leave the uptrend intact and signal that demand absorbed the largest futures-driven shake-out in two months. Long-term holders realized $930 million in profit per day at the recent peak, matching the pace recorded during March’s breakout above $100,000 but still well below the $1.64 billion peak seen in early April.

The price bounced before testing the short-term holder cost basis at $97,600 and stayed above the psychological $100,000 price level. Holding that band keeps cyclical momentum intact because 41% of trading days since the 2022 bottom have experienced deeper pullbacks. Open interest dropped by $2.3 billion, the seventh-largest deleveraging event since 2023. This movement suggested the decline was driven mainly by derivatives liquidation rather than spot distribution.