Bitcoin's 88% Profitability Signals Bullish Market Shift
1min read Bitcoin's market dynamics are undergoing a significant transformation, with 88% of its supply currently in profit. This high profitability, which has rebounded from a long-term mean of 75%, indicates a shift in investor expectations. The current price range of $75,000–$95,000 is seen as a potential structural bottom, aligning with market conditions observed in the third quarter of 2024. This range has been identified as a key support zone, where losses are concentrated among buyers who entered the market between $95,000 and $100,000.
Bitcoin's price recovery from its long-term cumulative mean percentage in profit marks a notable shift. In August 2024, Bitcoin retested the 75% mean at around $60,000, suggesting that the current price range may represent a bottom. This is further supported by a decrease in holder sales through exchanges, as indicated by the total exchange flow (inflow + outflow) to network activity ratio. This ratio has shown a 1.5x decrease following Bitcoin’s all-time high, confirming that the current growth is more organic and less driven by speculative selling.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, a key market sentiment indicator, has returned to its long-term mean of 1.74. Historically, this level has acted as a support zone during consolidation phases, signaling a cooling of unrealized gains and a potential base for future growth. This shift in market dynamics and evolving holder behavior suggests that the current cohort of profitable investors may be less inclined to sell at these levels, further strengthening the bullish case for the present market structure.
Additionally, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is neutral at 0.5 with Bitcoin priced at $94,400, contrasting with its overbought signal when BTC was previously at this level in February 2025. This neutral NVT ratio indicates a more balanced market environment, where the value of transactions is in line with the network's overall value, further supporting the idea of a stable and potentially growing market.
In summary, the current market conditions for Bitcoin, with 88% of its supply in profit and key indicators suggesting a cooling of unrealized gains, point to a more stable and potentially bullish market environment. Investors are viewing Bitcoin as undervalued within the $75,000–$95,000 range, which aligns with the broader bullish sentiment and indicates a reset in investor expectations. This shift in market dynamics and holder behavior could pave the way for future growth and a more sustainable market structure. 
