Bitcoin at $87K: Is a Red Christmas Eve the Precursor to a 2026 Bull Run?

Bitcoin's price has surged to $87,000 in late 2025, sparking debates about whether a "Red Christmas Eve"-a decline in December-could signal the start of a 2026 bull run. Historically, Bitcoin's performance around the holiday season has shown mixed signals, but when combined with today's institutional adoption tailwinds, the case for a new bull cycle grows compelling.

Historical Patterns: Christmas Eve as a Barometer

Bitcoin's price behavior around Christmas Eve has often acted as a barometer for broader market sentiment. In 2011 and 2016, BTC surged by 33% and 46%, respectively, during the festive period, directly preceding major bull runs according to historical analysis. Conversely, in 2018 and 2022, the cryptocurrency declined during the Christmas period, aligning with bearish trends as reported by market analysts. However, even in correctionary years, the holiday season has sometimes marked inflection points. For example, in 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin formed small bullish candlesticks on Christmas Eve, followed by all-time highs in early January. This suggests that while short-term volatility may persist, the broader trend often resumes post-holiday.

The 2020 Christmas period further illustrates this dynamic. After institutional adoption began to accelerate, Bitcoin surged to $24,000 by year-end, signaling a paradigm shift. Similarly, post-Christmas rallies have occasionally coincided with Bitcoin halving cycles, which historically drive price surges. While a Red Christmas Eve may not guarantee a reversal, it often coincides with key turning points in Bitcoin's trajectory.

Institutional Adoption: The 2025 Catalyst

Today's institutional landscape in late 2025 is vastly different from previous cycles. Regulatory clarity has emerged as a critical catalyst. The U.S. has approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the Digital Market Clarity Act-expected to pass in 2026-will further legitimize digital assets according to research reports. These developments have spurred a surge in institutional adoption. According to a report by Bloomberg, 68% of institutional investors have either invested in or plan to invest in Bitcoin ETPs, with spot Bitcoin ETFs managing over $115 billion in assets as detailed in market analysis.

Infrastructure maturity is another key driver. Qualified custody solutions and on-chain settlement systems have reduced institutional risk, enabling large-scale participation. Meanwhile, tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) is expanding Bitcoin's utility beyond speculative trading, integrating it into traditional portfolios. As stated by Grayscale in its 2026 Digital Asset Outlook, "Institutional capital is no longer a trickle-it's a flood, and Bitcoin is the destination" according to the company's forecast.

The 2026 Bull Case: Beyond Short-Term Volatility

Even if Bitcoin experiences a pullback this Christmas, the underlying fundamentals suggest a 2026 bull run is inevitable. Institutional adoption is no longer a niche trend but a structural shift. The maturation of compliant investment vehicles, coupled with macroeconomic factors like inflation hedging and portfolio diversification, positions Bitcoin to outperform traditional assets in the coming year.

Historical patterns remind us that short-term volatility-whether green or red at Christmas-does not negate long-term trends. In 2020, a bear market bottom in March led to a 10x rally by December, driven by institutional demand. Today's environment, with clearer regulations and deeper infrastructure, offers a stronger foundation for sustained growth.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's price at $87K in late 2025 reflects both market optimism and lingering caution. While a Red Christmas Eve may test sentiment, the broader narrative of institutional adoption and regulatory progress points to a 2026 bull run. Investors should focus on the long-term thesis: Bitcoin is no longer a speculative asset but a cornerstone of modern finance. As the calendar turns, the stage is set for a new chapter in Bitcoin's journey.