Bitcoin's $60k Crash: The $3B Leverage Reset Unpacked

The core of last week's crash was a massive, coordinated deleveraging. Total futures liquidations hit approximately $3 to $4 billion, with the bulk concentrated in the largest market: Bitcoin futures. An estimated $2 to $2.5 billion of that total was tied specifically to Bitcoin contracts, showing where the forced selling pressure was most acute.

This liquidation wave was matched by a sharp contraction in market leverage. Bitcoin futures open interest, a key gauge of borrowed capital betting on price moves, plummeted to about $49 billion from roughly $61 billion one week prior. That represents a more than 20% decline in just seven days, a dramatic pullback in speculative positioning.

The parallel between this open interest drop and the price collapse to $60,000 is telling. The market didn't experience a chaotic, spiraling crash. Instead, leverage and price fell together in a coordinated reset. This suggests a broad, orderly unwinding of bets rather than a single catastrophic event triggering a cascade of forced selling.

Miners: A Flow of Supply Under Pressure

The selling pressure from miners wasn't a single event but a compounding flow. As AI hype unraveled and financing dried up, companies that had pivoted to high-performance computing were forced to liquidate Bitcoin to fund operations. This created a direct, incremental supply of coins hitting the market just as leverage was being unwound.

The nature of this selloff is multi-factor and lacks a single catastrophic trigger. Matthew Sigel of VanEck notes the crash is driven by a combination of collapsing leverage, miners forced to sell, and other headwinds. This means the pressure on price was additive, with miner supply hitting a fragile market already experiencing massive futures liquidations.

Viewed another way, the timing was disastrous. Miners are dumping Bitcoin to fund AI pivots just as those very AI bets look increasingly shaky. This creates a feedback loop where the need for cash to maintain operations adds to the selling pressure, compounding the effect of the broader market deleveraging.

Catalysts and Risks: The Path to $50k or $70k

The immediate price action hinges on a few critical levels. The bounce from the $60,000 crash is fragile, with Bitcoin up 6% after testing extreme oversold conditions. The next major hurdle is the $75,000-$80,000 zone, which flipped from support to resistance during the collapse. A sustained break above that would be needed for any meaningful recovery toward the $89,070 resistance.

The key support levels are now in focus. If the recent rally fails, the next stop is the $50,000-$55,000 range. A break below that exposes the critical floor at $43,000. The ultimate catastrophic floor, a scenario tied to broader financial stress, sits at $32,851. This tiered structure defines the near-term risk profile.

The primary near-term catalyst for a floor is shifting macro sentiment. A surge in announced U.S. layoffs-108,435 in January, a 205% surge-is raising hopes the Federal Reserve will cut rates to support the economy. This dynamic could provide a floor under risk assets like Bitcoin, which trades down nearly 50% from its highs. However, this optimism clashes with official data, creating a tension that will dictate market direction.