Bitcoin to $59K? Kalshi Traders Are Pricing In a Deeper Drop

Kalshi traders are pricing in a possible Bitcoin drop to $59,000 as volatility and risk aversion rise across crypto markets. Data from the regulated prediction market shows growing expectations that Bitcoin could fall toward that level within a defined period. The forecast reflects shifting sentiment after weeks of volatility and recent liquidation-driven moves across crypto markets.

Traders on Kalshi are increasingly pricing scenarios where Bitcoin reaches $59,000, indicating a bearish outlook. This pricing reflects probability-weighted expectations rather than a guaranteed outcome. The increased demand for downside contracts suggests that traders are adjusting their risk exposure amid high uncertainty.

Market data reviewed by Hokanews shows that this shift in sentiment is being driven by uncertainty and macroeconomic factors. Interest rate expectations and global risk conditions remain mixed, influencing the behavior of volatile assets like Bitcoin. Prediction markets like Kalshi are being watched as a real-time tool for assessing market sentiment.

Why the Move Happened

Bitcoin markets have experienced sharp price swings in recent weeks. Large liquidations across exchanges have reduced leveraged positions, shifting short-term market structure and liquidity conditions. Derivatives data shows reduced demand for aggressive long positions, with funding rates moderating as traders limit exposure.

Options markets also reflect increased interest in downside protection, as traders are paying higher premiums for put options. This behavior aligns with a defensive stance across risk assets. The $59,000 level is viewed as a prior support zone, and retests of such levels often attract attention during corrections.

How Markets Responded

Recent liquidation events have removed a large amount of leverage from the system, which can reduce rebounds but also limit forced selling. Prediction markets are seen as a tool that provides insight into real-time expectations because participants risk capital rather than merely offering opinions.