Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle and the Evolving Macro Landscape

The financial markets in 2025 are operating under a dual narrative: traditional banking institutions like Landmark Bancorp are thriving amid macroeconomic shifts, while Bitcoin, the poster child of the crypto asset class, faces headwinds from inflationary pressures and investor uncertainty. This divergence raises a critical question: Do historical Bitcoin 4-year cycles still hold relevance in an environment where macroeconomic forces increasingly dominate investor behavior?

Landmark Bancorp: A Case Study in Traditional Financial Resilience

Landmark Bancorp's Q3 2025 results underscore the strength of traditional financial institutions in navigating current macroeconomic conditions. The company reported net earnings of $4.9 million, a 25.4% year-over-year increase, driven by a 10% annualized growth in average loans and a 12.2% rise in non-interest income according to earnings data. Its efficiency ratio improved to 60.7%, reflecting disciplined cost management, while deposit balances surged to $1.3 billion, fueled by growth in certificates of deposit and money market accounts as reported in the earnings transcript.

These metrics highlight how banks are capitalizing on higher interest rates and stable lending demand. Landmark's return on average equity of 13% and loan-to-deposit ratio of 83.4% suggest a balanced approach to risk and growth, aligning with broader trends in the banking sector as central banks maintain elevated rates to combat inflation. For investors, this performance reinforces the appeal of traditional financial assets in an environment where macroeconomic stability-albeit fragile-offers a degree of predictability.

Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle: A Fractured Narrative

Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, historically marked by halving events and cyclical price peaks, has long been a cornerstone of crypto analysis. However, 2025's macroeconomic landscape is testing the validity of this pattern. On November 20, 2025, Bitcoin hit a seven-month low of $89,037, amid concerns over inflation, a U.S. government shutdown, and trade war tensions according to crypto market analysis. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a record $523 million outflow in a single day, reflecting a broader selloff in crypto assets as reported in market data.

This slump contrasts sharply with Landmark's performance, illustrating how macroeconomic factors-particularly interest rate uncertainty and inflation expectations-are overshadowing Bitcoin's intrinsic supply-driven cycles. For instance, the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady, despite pressure from figures like Donald Trump, has created a climate where investors favor assets with clearer yield profiles over volatile crypto holdings according to financial analysis. Similarly, Japan's Bank of Japan (BOJ) is pushing for rate normalization to address inflation, a move that could further erode Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against monetary expansion as reported by financial news sources.

Macro Over Micro: The New Paradigm

The interplay between Bitcoin's 4-year cycle and macroeconomic forces reveals a shifting investor calculus. Historically, Bitcoin's halving events (scheduled for 2024 and 2028) have coincided with price surges, but 2025's macroeconomic volatility-including trade wars and geopolitical instability-has disrupted this rhythm according to market analysis. While some analysts, like Mike Alfred, argue that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2033 as governments adopt it as a reserve asset according to market projections, such projections ignore the immediate risks posed by central bank policies and inflationary pressures.

Landmark Bancorp's success in Q3 2025 demonstrates how traditional financial institutions are leveraging macroeconomic tailwinds-such as higher net interest margins and stable deposit growth-to deliver consistent returns. In contrast, Bitcoin's performance is increasingly tied to global macroeconomic sentiment, where factors like interest rate expectations and trade dynamics outweigh the influence of its supply schedule.

Conclusion: Adapting to a New Era

The 2025 financial landscape underscores a critical shift: macroeconomic fundamentals are now the primary driver of asset performance, whether in traditional banking or crypto markets. For Bitcoin, the 4-year cycle remains a useful framework but is no longer a standalone predictor of price action. Investors must now weigh central bank policies, inflation trajectories, and geopolitical risks alongside Bitcoin's intrinsic supply dynamics.

Landmark Bancorp's Q3 results serve as a reminder that traditional financial assets can thrive in a high-interest-rate environment, offering a counterpoint to the crypto market's current struggles. As macroeconomic conditions evolve, the ability to adapt-whether through disciplined cost management or strategic asset allocation-will determine long-term success in both traditional and digital markets.