Bitcoin -4.96% in 7 Days as Central Bank Purchases and Whale Activity Highlight Institutional Interest

On November 13, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) closed at $99,304.17, representing a 0.17% decline in the last 24 hours, a 4.96% drop over seven days, and a 9.2% slide in one month. Despite this, it remains up 6.36% year-to-date. The week’s price action coincided with several institutional developments, including the first-ever central bank purchase of bitcoin and ongoing whale activity across major exchanges.

The Czech National Bank (CNB) announced the launch of a $1 million test portfolio of digital assets, including bitcoin, a USD stablecoin, and a tokenized deposit. This initiative, approved by the bank’s board on October 30, aims to explore the processes of acquiring, holding, and managing blockchain-based assets. CNB Governor Aleš Michl emphasized the initiative’s goal of evaluating bitcoin’s potential to diversify the bank’s reserves and its role in future financial infrastructure. The move marks a significant step toward institutional recognition of bitcoin’s utility, though it is not expected to directly influence the broader market in the short term.

Meanwhile, notable whale activity highlighted large-scale movements of BTC. Veteran investor Owen Gunden deposited 450 BTC—valued at $45.7 million—into Kraken, bringing his total holdings to 4,900 BTC, or approximately $500 million. Gunden’s actions, along with other large transfers, have drawn attention to the role of institutional-grade custody platforms in managing significant BTC positions. These movements reflect broader patterns of liquidity management among high-net-worth individuals and suggest continued confidence in BTC as a store of value, despite recent price declines.

Technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest mixed sentiment. BTC dominance remains at 59.77%, while hashrate activity and network fees indicate ongoing miner resilience. However, the recent breach of the $100,000 level has triggered over $658 million in liquidations, with long positions accounting for the majority of forced closures. This volatility has created uncertainty in the market, particularly as ETF redemptions and leveraged trading activity amplify short-term price swings.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting analysis was conducted to evaluate the medium-term price impact of the CNB’s bitcoin-related announcements. The study covered 286 relevant dates between November 13, 2023, and July 15, 2025, and was applied to BTCUSD data from January 1, 2022, to November 13, 2025. The results indicate that CNB-related headlines generated a modest but statistically significant positive momentum between day 15 and day 26, with a cumulative excess return of approximately +2 percentage points and a win rate of about 60%. This suggests that market participants tended to react favorably to news about central bank interest in bitcoin over a three-to-four-week period. However, the effect faded after roughly one month, indicating that the market fully digested the news within this timeframe. Importantly, no abnormal drawdowns or volatility spikes were observed around the events, suggesting that CNB-related announcements have not historically triggered heightened risk for BTC investors.