Bitcoin's 30-Day Active Supply Drops 17% Amid Price Stability Above $100,000

Bitcoin’s 30-day active supply has decreased by 17%, indicating a slowdown in on-chain movement despite the cryptocurrency's price remaining above $100,000 in mid-2025. This metric, which measures the percentage of coins moving on the blockchain compared to a month ago, suggests a reduction in blockchain activity. Historically, such drops have marked significant inflection points, with a similar decline in September 2024 preceding a major rally.

While the short-term supply activity has slowed, long-term supply metrics indicate stable network growth and sustained market engagement. This stability is crucial as it reflects the underlying strength of the Bitcoin network, even amidst short-term fluctuations. The current price of Bitcoin, holding above $100,000, adds to the narrative of a resilient market, despite the reduced short-term activity.

Bitcoin’s price history shows a strong correlation with changes in supply activity. During the bull run of early 2021, when Bitcoin surged from $10,000 to nearly $70,000, the active supply percentage rose, reflecting high market engagement. Conversely, in 2022, as Bitcoin fell toward the $15,000–$20,000 range, supply activity dropped, aligning with reduced investor participation. The 30-day moving average closely followed this downward price shift, highlighting the sensitivity of supply metrics to market conditions.

In late 2023, Bitcoin’s breakout reignited supply movement, with prices soaring past $100,000 in 2024 and setting new all-time highs. During this phase, both short and long-term supply activity metrics rose in tandem with price. However, even during rallies, there were periods of sharp negative changes in activity. The current -17% drop mirrors those corrections, suggesting a potential for a bullish reversal, as noted by on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. Longer-term metrics like the 365-day change still show stable network growth, indicating that broader participation remains strong despite short-term slowdowns.

The drop in Bitcoin's supply activity suggests a period of consolidation or reduced trading interest. This could be due to various factors, including market participants taking profits, waiting for clearer market signals, or adjusting their strategies in response to recent price movements. Despite this, Bitcoin's ability to hold above $100,000 indicates a level of resilience and support from investors who believe in its long-term value proposition.

Analysts have noted that as long as Bitcoin maintains its price above $100,437, there is potential for further resilience. This threshold seems to act as a psychological and technical support level, where buyers are willing to step in and prevent further declines. The market's reaction to this price level will be crucial in determining the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin's price.

The broader market context also includes other significant developments. For example, the decision by certain entities to reduce Bitcoin mining income after the April 2024 halving also plays a role in the current market dynamics. The halving event, which reduces the block reward for miners, has historically led to periods of price consolidation and increased volatility. However, the market's ability to absorb these changes and maintain price levels above $100,000 suggests a maturing ecosystem with stronger fundamentals.

In summary, the 17% drop in Bitcoin's supply activity, coupled with its price holding above $100,000, reflects a market in transition. While there are signs of consolidation and reduced trading interest, the resilience shown by Bitcoin's price indicates ongoing support from investors. The broader market context, including the performance of other cryptocurrencies and traditional equities, adds layers of complexity to the current dynamics. As the market continues to evolve, it will be crucial to monitor these developments closely to gain insights into the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.