Bitcoin's 27% rally driven by $3.06 billion ETF inflows faces $100,000 resistance

Bitcoin's recent price recovery has been fueled by significant investor interest in spot ETFs, with net weekly inflows reaching $3.06 billion, the highest since December 2025. This surge in inflows has raised questions about whether such high levels of investment signal a local price top for the cryptocurrency. Historical data provides a mixed picture, with some instances where large inflows coincided with or preceded Bitcoin price peaks, while other times they did not.

For example, in March 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows of over $1 billion, which preceded Bitcoin’s new all-time high of around $73,300. Similarly, in June 2024, daily inflows hit $917 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s rally from $67,000 to $72,000, followed by a 25% correction to $53,000. These cases suggest that major inflows can precede local tops. However, in November 2024, weekly inflows hit $3.38 billion as Bitcoin hit one all-time high after another, but this did not immediately lead to a price top. Instead, BTC showed resilience, crossing the $100,000 mark for the first time to its previous all-time highs of $108,000 reached on Dec. 17, 2025.

Market analytics resource FalconX demonstrated the relationship between ETF net flows and Bitcoin price using a Vector Autoregression model. The analysis found that inflows have short-term predictive power for price increases, not necessarily reversals. This suggests that while high ETF inflows may indicate short-term price rises, they do not always signal a price top.

Bitcoin’s 27% rally from the $74,400 range low saw it flip key levels into support, including the 50-day ($85,100), 100-day ($90,570), and 200-day ($89,300) simple moving averages (SMA). However, Bitcoin was still consolidating under the resistance at $95,000 as observed by popular analyst AlphaBTC. AlphaBTC noted that the $95,000 level has held Bitcoin’s price for the last few days and hoped to see BTC move past it as the week opens. AlphaBTC added, “I think we push to 100K, but then likely see a bigger pullback.”

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows significant seller interest within the $97,000-$100,000 range over the past three months. This suggests that Bitcoin’s price might rise further to take the liquidity at $100,000 before staging a pullback. Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, doubted the ability of BTC/USD to sustain a trip above $95,000. While trading firm QCP Capital argued that Bitcoin lacked a “catalyst” to propel it toward $100,000 for the time being.

In summary, while high ETF inflows have historically had a mixed relationship with Bitcoin price tops, the current data suggests that Bitcoin may hit $100,000 but faces resistance. The short-term predictive power of inflows for price increases, combined with significant seller interest in the $97,000-$100,000 range, indicates that Bitcoin’s price could rise further before a potential pullback. However, the lack of a clear catalyst for sustained price increases above $95,000 suggests that Bitcoin’s upside could be limited to $100,000 in the near term.