Bitcoin's 25% April Rebound Drives Market Sentiment Shift

In April, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant shift in investor sentiment, transitioning from fear to greed. This change was driven by Bitcoin's price recovery, which rebounded by 25% from its early April lows. The surge in demand was evident across various investor tiers, from large whales to smaller investors.

According to data, the Fear & Greed Index surged from a low of 18 to a high of 72 in April. This marked the highest level since February and indicated a clear shift from fear to greed. Another index, CoinMarketCap’s version, showed a rise from 15 to 52 points, moving from extreme fear to a neutral state. Both indices confirmed a notable shift in investor sentiment, with investors moving past the fear that often triggers panic selling.

This neutral or greedy mindset laid the groundwork for further optimism. If it continues, the market may reach a state of extreme greed before any major correction occurs. This sentiment shift has led to five divergence signals that support the potential continuation of the recovery for both Bitcoin and altcoins.

Ask Aime: How will the recent shift in investor sentiment from fear to greed affect the cryptocurrency market?

On-chain data revealed that whale accumulation helped Bitcoin hold above $93,000 in the final week of April. A chart from Glassnode showed a clear transition from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase during April, aligning with Bitcoin’s rebound from its monthly low. Specifically, Bitcoin whales—wallets holding over 10,000 BTC—have been accumulating at near-perfect levels, with their Trend Accumulation Score around 0.9.

Following the whales, wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC gradually increased their accumulation score in the second half of April, reaching 0.7. Other wallet tiers also showed signs of accumulation, reflecting changing sentiment among smaller whales. This accumulation trend was further confirmed by a report highlighting that Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.68 billion in inflows last week, with five consecutive days of positive inflows. These metrics confirmed that demand is returning and laid the foundation for continued price gains.

Fidelity Digital Assets reported that Bitcoin supply on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, with only about 2.6 million BTC remaining. More than 425,000 BTC have left exchanges since November 2024, with public companies adding nearly 350,000 BTC since the US election and buying over 30,000 BTC monthly in 2025. fidelity expects this trend to continue, stating that Bitcoin supply on exchanges is dropping due to public company purchases, a trend anticipated to accelerate in the near future.

Meanwhile, ark Invest updated its Bitcoin price projection in the Big Ideas 2025 report. Under its most bullish scenario, Bitcoin could reach $2.4 million by 2030—far above its previous forecast of $1.5 million. This projection relies on several factors, including increasing institutional investment, the possibility of nations treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, and its growing role in decentralized finance.

While fund managers like Fidelity and ARK Invest have a positive outlook for April, some retail investors are beginning to express caution. The idea of “sell in May” is starting to surface, reflecting concern amid unpredictable macroeconomic factors, such as tariffs and interest rate shifts, that could strongly impact the market in the near future.