Bitcoin's 22% Drop Sparks Fear, Analyst Predicts $153K Target

Bitcoin's recent price drop has sparked fear among traders, with the cryptocurrency experiencing a roughly 22% pullback from its recent all-time high. However, long-time market analyst Bob Loukas remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, predicting a potential price target of $153,000.

In his latest video update, Loukas acknowledged the growing anxiety among traders following Bitcoin's drop from around $110,000 to the mid-$80,000 range. He emphasized that such swings are a natural part of Bitcoin's characteristic volatility and should not come as a major surprise. Loukas stated that a 20% drawdown from a high is historically average for Bitcoin's four-year cycle.

While Loukas acknowledged the possibility of deeper drops in the short term, he contends that these corrective moves represent a routine "fear reset." He argues that late buyers in the previous upswing often capitulate during such pullbacks, but these phases have historically paved the way for fresh rallies in the context of Bitcoin's broader uptrend.

Loukas primarily frames his analysis around a four-year cycle, which he subdivides into shorter "weekly cycles" of roughly six months each. Each weekly cycle typically ascends for two-thirds of its duration and then declines for the remainder, resetting sentiment. Although the current pullback unsettles many traders, Loukas sees it as consistent with Bitcoin's longstanding cyclical pattern.

Loukas revealed that his first sale target for the model portfolio is around $153,000 per Bitcoin, contingent on where this current decline bottoms. From the mid-$80,000s, his baseline scenario projects a potential 80% upward move during the next multi-week upswing. He emphasized that this number may be revised depending on how low Bitcoin drops during the present correction.

Crucially, Loukas noted that he remains open to the possibility that the top could be in if the next rebound falters in a pattern known as a "failed weekly cycle." He explained that once Bitcoin establishes a new short-term low, the market's next test will be its recovery. If that bounce fails to surpass the prior high and subsequently undercuts the newly established low, it would signal deeper downside.

Although Loukas briefly mentioned the altcoin market, he highlighted how this cycle