Bitcoin’s 2025 Cycle Peak: Is the Bull Run Ending Sooner Than Expected?

The Bitcoin market in 2025 is at a crossroads. After a meteoric rise driven by institutional adoption and regulatory tailwinds, the cryptocurrency now faces a confluence of technical and macroeconomic bearish signals that suggest the bull cycle may be nearing exhaustion. While optimists point to bullish RSI divergences and accumulation phases, the data paints a more nuanced—and potentially alarming—picture for investors.

Technical Bearish Signals: Divergence and Structural Weakness

Bitcoin’s technical indicators in Q3 2025 reveal a growing disconnect between price action and momentum. The 14-month RSI has formed a bearish divergence, declining as prices rise—a classic precursor to trend reversals [1]. On the four-hour chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are in a downward trajectory, signaling short-term weakness despite the daily chart’s 50-day MA rising and the 200-day MA acting as support [1]. This duality reflects a tug-of-war between near-term profit-taking and long-term bullish fundamentals.

Structurally, a confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern at $113K adds to the bearish narrative. Historical precedents suggest such patterns often precede sharp corrections, with the measured target implying a potential drop to $50K [1]. On-chain metrics further reinforce this view: the realized price, which reflects the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders, is currently at an 11.3% discount to the spot price—a condition last seen during the 2021–2022 bear market [1]. Monte Carlo simulations estimate a 5% probability of Bitcoin falling below $41,000 by late 2026, underscoring the risk of a prolonged bearish phase if the 200WMA at $50K fails [1].

Macroeconomic Headwinds: Policy Uncertainty and Seasonal Weakness

The macroeconomic landscape introduces additional risks. While the U.S. Federal Reserve’s projected rate cuts in 2025 could boost liquidity and asset prices, the timing and magnitude remain uncertain. A “soft” inflation report might ease financial conditions, but a “hot” CPI/PPI reading could trigger a policy reversal, disproportionately impacting risk assets like Bitcoin [3]. Meanwhile, rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions—such as the U.S. goods trade deficit and global food price inflation—pose tail risks that could amplify Bitcoin’s volatility [3].

September 2025 also marks a historically weak period for Bitcoin, with average returns of -3.77% since 2013 attributed to tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors [2]. This seasonal weakness, combined with the Fed’s potential pivot to a “soft landing” narrative, creates a high-probability environment for short-term corrections.

Balancing the Bullish Case: Accumulation and Institutional Momentum

Critics of the bearish thesis highlight bullish RSI divergences on the daily chart and a rising Aroon Indicator, suggesting upward momentum [2]. On-chain data also show declining exchange balances and a low MVRV Z-Score, indicating strong accumulation [4]. However, these signals must be weighed against the broader context. For instance, while the 4-hour RSI bullish divergence may trigger short-term rallies, it does not negate the structural bearishness of the 14-month RSI or the head-and-shoulders pattern.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Bull Run

Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle peak appears increasingly vulnerable to a premature end. The combination of technical divergences, on-chain discounts, and macroeconomic uncertainties creates a high-risk environment. While institutional adoption and regulatory progress remain tailwinds, they may not be sufficient to counteract the forces of profit-taking and policy-driven volatility. Investors should remain cautious, with key support levels at $105K–$110K and the 200WMA at $50K serving as critical watchpoints [2].

Source:[1] Bitcoin's Potential Entry Into a Nightmare Bear Cycle [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604942203][2] How Low Can Bitcoin Go in September 2025? BTC Price Predictions Analysis [https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-low-can-bitcoin-go-in-september-2025-btc-price-predictions-analysis/][3] Bitcoin Trends - W1 September 2025 - Adler's Insights [https://adlerscryptoinsights.substack.com/p/bitcoin-trends-w1-september-2025][4] Bitcoin's Bull Run: Key Indicators To Navigate The 2025 Market Cycle [https://www.forbes.com/sites/leeorshimron/2024/12/30/bitcoins-bull-run-key-indicators-to-navigate-the-2025-market-cycle/]