Is Bitcoin's 2025 Correction Setting Up a $164K Bull Run?

Bitcoin's 2025 correction has sparked intense debate among investors and analysts. After a sharp pullback from $126,000 to below $90,000, the market is now testing critical support levels and on-chain metrics that could signal a classic bull market bottom. With historical parallels to 2015 and 2019 cycles, the question remains: Is this correction a gateway to a $164K rally? Let's dissect the technical and on-chain indicators shaping this narrative.

Technical Indicators: A Tale of Two Phases

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been defined by a "fast, painful" correction, driven by leveraged position expirations and speculative capital exhaustion. The SuperTrend indicator on the weekly chart has flipped bearish, historically associated with 61% average drawdowns. However, the market's resilience above the aggregate realized price of $50,000–$55,000 suggests structural strength.

Key technical levels are now in focus. Bitcoin is consolidating above $92,000 and the 100-hour SMA, with a breakout above $93,000–$94,000 seen as critical for unlocking higher targets. On the downside, the $90,500 zone acts as a pivotal support level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD signal buyer fatigue, with RSI below 50 and MACD flattening. These metrics highlight a potential inflection point, where renewed institutional inflows or retail demand could tip the scales.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation Amid Stress

On-chain data paints a nuanced picture of market stress and accumulation. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has dropped to 1.8–2.0, below euphoric levels but above historical bear market bottoms (sub-1.0). This suggests capitulation is not yet widespread, with long-term holders (LTHs) maintaining unrealized gains (LTH MVRV at 3.11).

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has dipped below 1.0, indicating short-term holders are selling at a loss. However, this aligns with mid-cycle accumulation patterns, where profit-taking is gradual rather than panic-driven. Miner activity further underscores structural stress: miner outflows have spiked, and wallet balances hit multi-year lows. Yet, older coins are moving at prices above $90,000, signaling LTH distribution.

Historical Parallels: Lessons from 2015 and 2019

Bitcoin's bull market bottoms often follow a consistent playbook. In 2015, the MVRV ratio and SOPR signaled early accumulation, laying the groundwork for the 2017 $20,000 surge. Similarly, the 2019 bottom saw the Mayer Multiple hit historical lows and NUPL return to positive territory, reflecting undervaluation.

Today's metrics mirror these patterns but with added stability. The 2024 halving-a historical catalyst-reduced Bitcoin's supply, reinforcing its deflationary narrative. Current MVRV and SOPR levels (0.66 for STHs) align with historical support zones, while the 93% correlation with the 2017 bull cycle suggests a potential resumption of upward momentum.

Institutional and Macro Dynamics: A Bifurcated Narrative

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $3.5 billion in outflows in November 2025, yet long-term investors like El Salvador and MicroStrategy continue to accumulate. This divergence highlights a bifurcation between short-term trading flows and long-term conviction.

Macro factors remain a wildcard. Inflationary pressures and quantitative tightening have dampened Bitcoin's appeal as an inflation hedge. However, structural support from ETF inflows and macro policy stability persists. If global liquidity trends shift, Bitcoin could regain its role as a hedge against monetary debasement.

Price Targets and the Path to $164K

A $164K rally hinges on breaking key resistance levels. Historically, bull markets have seen price surges following halving events and ETF approvals. If Bitcoin reclaims the $93,000–$94,000 zone, the next target could align with the 2017 cycle's trajectory.

The Mayer Multiple, currently in bullish territory, and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator further reinforce this case. Institutional adoption, including BlackRock's endorsement of Bitcoin as a diversification tool adds another layer of credibility to the bull case.

Conclusion: A Classic Bottom in the Making?

Bitcoin's 2025 correction has triggered bearish signals, but the confluence of on-chain accumulation, historical parallels, and institutional resilience suggests a classic bull market bottom is forming. While macroeconomic headwinds persist, the interplay of technical and on-chain metrics-coupled with long-term holder confidence-points to a potential $164K rally. Investors should monitor the $90,500 support and $93,000–$94,000 breakout zone, as these levels will determine whether this correction is a prelude to a new bull phase or a deeper consolidation.