Bitcoin's 2025 Bull Run: Is the Top Nearing or Momentum Still Building?

Bitcoin's 2025 market cycle has been a rollercoaster, marked by sharp corrections, institutional accumulation, and diverging on-chain signals. As the price tumbles below $90,000 in November 2025-the first dip in seven months-investors are scrambling to decode whether this is a cyclical bottom or a warning of further distress. This analysis leverages on-chain metrics and contrarian market cycle logic to dissect Bitcoin's trajectory.

On-Chain Indicators: A Tale of Two Narratives

Bitcoin's realized price, a measure of the average cost basis of all circulating coins, currently exceeds its market price according to on-chain data. This suggests that, on aggregate, holders are sitting on paper losses-a classic sign of market distress often observed at cycle lows. However, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key cyclical indicator, has dipped into historically oversold territory according to analysis. Analysts interpret this as a potential signal that Bitcoin's bear market is nearing its end, with the MVRV ratio often bottoming before price action turns bullish.

Meanwhile, whale activity tells a more nuanced story. . One whale alone accumulated over $226 million in Bitcoin over six days in late November 2025, signaling conviction in the asset's long-term value. Such behavior contrasts with retail panic, hinting at a divergence between short-term sentiment and long-term positioning.

Contrarian Market Cycle Analysis: Accumulation in the Dark

Bitcoin's sharp correction to $85,000 has exposed critical support levels. According to analysts, a break below $83,300 could trigger a cascade to $70,000. The broader context reveals a different narrative. According to reports, institutional investors and sovereign entities have been quietly accumulating during the downturn, a pattern historically observed ahead of major bull runs. This "buy the dip" strategy, though unpopular in bear markets, often sets the stage for explosive rallies when liquidity returns.

The current environment also reflects tight liquidity conditions, a macroeconomic headwind that exacerbates short-term volatility. Yet, this constraint could work in Bitcoin's favor. As central banks normalize monetary policy and risk-on sentiment returns, Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation and capital controls may reignite demand.

The Contrarian Case for Caution and Conviction

While the immediate technical outlook is bearish, on-chain data and institutional behavior suggest a deeper structural shift. The percent of addresses in profit has collapsed, with short-term holders underwater and long-term holders maintaining a relatively stable profit margin according to on-chain data. This divergence implies that the market is being driven by patient, strategic capital rather than speculative noise-a bullish sign for cycles.

However, caution is warranted. The $85,000 support level must hold to prevent a cascade into lower thresholds. If it fails, the market could spiral toward $70,000, testing the resilience of long-term holders. Yet, history shows that Bitcoin's worst corrections often precede its most explosive recoveries.

Conclusion: The Bull Run's Unwritten Chapter

Bitcoin's 2025 bull run is far from over, but it is entering a phase defined by contrarian logic. On-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio and whale accumulation suggest that the worst may already be priced in. Meanwhile, institutional buying during the downturn and the asset's inherent scarcity make a compelling case for a multi-year bull market.

For investors, the key is to balance short-term risk management with long-term conviction. As the market cycles through panic and accumulation, Bitcoin's next leg higher may emerge not from euphoria, but from the quiet resolve of those who buy when others flee.