Bitcoin's $200M Whale Outflow Signals Potential Correction Near $98,000 Resistance
2min read Bitcoin's recent surge has brought it close to the $98,000 resistance level, but the cryptocurrency is encountering significant obstacles at this point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has indicated overbought conditions, suggesting that the market may be due for a correction. Additionally, whale outflows have reached $200 million in the past 24 hours, indicating that large investors may be taking profits and exiting their positions.
Market analyst Capo of Crypto has warned that the current levels may represent a local top and possible “LTF distribution.” Capo noted that above $92,000–$93,000, the outlook is bullish, but there is strong resistance at $96,000–$98,000. Below $92,000, the outlook turns bearish. His analysis projects a potential “real capitulation event” if BTC is rejected from this resistance and fails to hold key support near $92,000.
Long-term holders (LTHs)—those holding BTC for more than 155 days—are approaching a critical profitability threshold. The average unrealized profit for these holders will hit approximately 350% if BTC reaches $99,900. This level is historically linked to large-scale distribution events where holders sell. Despite their reputation for holding, lths have shown a clear tendency to take profits near macro tops, as seen during rallies in 2021 and 2023.
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance recently spiked to 1.142, the highest level in its current range. This indicates that market participants are aggressively buying at market price, not waiting for dips; a clear sign of bullish FOMO. The sharp $200 million BTC outflow from exchanges coincides with Bitcoin breaking through $96,000. This withdrawal, typically interpreted as whales moving coins into cold storage, reflects confidence and reduces immediate sell pressure on exchanges.
Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands (BB) show BTC pushing the upper band near $100,000, a signal of overbought conditions but also strong upward momentum. Meanwhile, mid-BB support rests near $90,000, which aligns with Capo’s short-term bearish invalidation zone. If the price retraces to this area, the reaction will be critical. The RSI (14-day) sits at 69.66, teetering on overbought. Historically, Bitcoin can push well above 70 in parabolic rallies, but it also suggests a pullback could follow if bulls lose momentum.
Bitcoin's social sentiment has flipped from fear to renewed fear of missing out (FOMO), now making up 25% of crypto discussions with more positive commentary than negative. The market's changing sentiments towards these assets highlight the dynamic nature of the crypto sector. As the market enters May, the key question is whether altcoins can sustain the momentum or if this is just another hype-driven spike destined to fade. The exit of whales and the overbought signals from the RSI suggest that Bitcoin's top may be in sight, and a correction could be on the horizon. Investors should remain cautious and be prepared for potential volatility in the coming weeks.
