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Bitcoin's $200,000 Target and Ethereum's Undervalued Comeback: Timing the Tariff Volatility Window

Wesley ParkSunday, May 18, 2025 9:18 pm ET

3min read

The market is on the brink of a seismic shift, and it’s all tied to July and August 2025—the dates when President Trump’s tariff deadlines hit like a financial tsunami. These deadlines aren’t just about trade wars; they’re the catalysts that will send Bitcoin (BTC) to $200,000 by summer’s end and position Ethereum (ETH) for a comeback that’s been years in the making. Let’s unpack how geopolitics, money printing, and sentiment shifts are aligning to create one of the greatest investing opportunities of this decade.

The Tariff Volatility Window: Bitcoin’s $200K Surge Is Imminent

Arthur Hayes, the maverick co-founder of BitMEX, has been screaming this truth: the July 4th and August 10th tariff deadlines are not mere dates—they’re price triggers. Here’s why:
- The U.S. has imposed 34% tariffs on Chinese imports and 20% on the EU, creating a $1.2 trillion trade deficit shock.
- Foreign investors are fleeing U.S. bonds and stocks to avoid these tariffs, forcing the Fed’s hand. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows a 72.8% chance of a rate cut by July, with QE resuming by year-end.
- This liquidity tsunami will push Bitcoin to $200,000 by summer, as Hayes’ analysis shows it’s the only asset insulated from tariff-induced USD weakness.

The math is simple: a weaker dollar means Bitcoin—a “hard money” alternative—becomes the ultimate hedge. But here’s the kicker—this isn’t just a summer rally. Hayes’ $1 million BTC price target by 2028 hinges on Trump’s policies permanently altering the money supply. The Fed’s balance sheet could expand by $3 trillion over the next three years, and Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins will ensure it’s the last standing store of value in this inflationary storm.

Why Bitcoin Is “Hated But Pivotal”

Critics call Bitcoin a “speculative bubble.” They’re wrong. Look at gold—a supposed inflation hedge that’s down 15% since March 2025 as investors flee its lack of utility. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is the digital gold for the digital age, with:
- Network effects: 100,000+ daily transactions on layer-2 scaling solutions like the Lightning Network.
- Institutional adoption: Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust now holds $50 billion, and pension funds are quietly loading up.
- Geopolitical armor: China’s yuan devaluation (now at 8.20 to the dollar) has already sent $20 billion into crypto, with Hayes’ “Yahtzee ingredients” (capital flight + currency wars) fully in play.

Ethereum: The Undervalued Elephant in the Room

While Bitcoin grabs headlines, Ethereum is the real contrarian play. ETH is trading at $2,100, but its fundamentals are screaming $5,000+ by 2026—here’s why:
1. Network utility explosion:
- Ethereum’s share of global DeFi TVL (total value locked) is 85%, with $120 billion in liquidity.
- NFT sales hit $10 billion in Q1 2025, driven by AI-powered generative art.

Developer dominance:
Over 15,000 active developers are building on Ethereum, versus 3,000 for Solana and 2,000 for Cardano.
The Merge (transition to proof-of-stake) slashed energy use by 99%, making ETH a sustainable blockchain leader.
Undervalued by 70%:
ETH’s network value-to-transaction ratio (NVT) is 20% below its 2021 peak, signaling a massive undervaluation.
Its staking yield of 4.5% is a steal compared to the Fed’s 1.5% rate.

The Play: Buy Bitcoin Before the Volatility, and Stack Ethereum While It’s Ignored

Action Plan:
1. Allocate 10% of your portfolio to Bitcoin NOW:
- The July/August volatility window is the last chance to buy BTC at sub-$200K before the Fed’s rate cut and tariff resolution send it parabolic.
- Use limit orders at $175K and $185K to average down—this is the “buy the dip” strategy that works in crypto.

Double down on Ethereum as a “patient” contrarian bet:
Buy ETH at $2,100 and hold for 12–18 months. Its fundamentals are too strong to stay ignored.
Avoid FOMO plays like Dogecoin—Ethereum is the only altcoin with enterprise adoption (see Microsoft’s Azure blockchain partnerships).
Sell gold and Treasury bonds:
The Fed’s pivot to QE means bonds are a “yield trap,” while gold can’t compete with Bitcoin’s utility.

The Bottom Line: This Isn’t 2017—It’s 2025, and Crypto Is Here to Stay

The naysayers will call this a bubble. They’ll be wrong. The tariff deadlines aren’t just about trade—they’re about the end of fiat hegemony. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the new pillars of the global financial system, and missing this move will cost you millions.

Act now—before the volatility window slams shut.

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