Bitcoin's 195-Day Range Marks Longest Consolidation in Cycle 4

Bitcoin has been in a prolonged period of consolidation, with the current 195-day sideways cycle marking the longest in Cycle 4. This phase has stifled momentum despite previous bursts of expansion. Over the past two years, Bitcoin has experienced just 36 days of meaningful price movement, with the rest of the time spent in a range-bound market.

The price behavior of Bitcoin has been characterized by extended periods of consolidation interspersed with brief expansion bursts. In early 2023, there were two price jumps lasting four and one day, respectively, followed by a 41-day consolidation. This was succeeded by a 29-day expansion phase, leading into a prolonged 192-day range that lasted until November. A brief three-day surge then broke the stagnation.

From November 2023 to January 2024, the price expanded for 43 days before entering a 62-day range. A 5-day burst then resumed the rally, followed by one of Bitcoin's longest range periods—238 days—between February and October 2024. This cycle has been consistent, alternating between long periods of stagnation and short rallies.

Late 2024 saw a modest three-day price push, followed by another 38-day surge. However, 2025 opened with a fresh 195-day range. During this time, multiple short bursts lasted between two and three days. The pattern held, but without sustained momentum. The current chart shows prices ranging between $10,000 and $113,000, with a potential breakout zone projected for late 2025. However, no fixed target or timeline accompanies this projection, leaving the possibility of an imminent expansion open.

The total range time has reached 1 year and 363 days, with total expansion time sitting at 5.76 months. The data illustrates a cycle shaped by hesitation rather than momentum. Besides the expansion phases, most of the market has trended sideways. Hence, the breakout expected in 2025 may become the critical turning point in Cycle 4.