Bitcoin's $150K Target Looks Unlikely As Polymarket Odds Sink To 23%

Bitcoin price remains confined within a narrow trading range around $89,000, as market participants exhibit indecision amid weak ETF flows and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to record net outflows for a third consecutive week, with a total of $12.37 million leaving these products as of Thursday. This trend highlights ongoing challenges in sustaining institutional demand for the cryptocurrency.

Prediction markets reflect cautious sentiment for Bitcoin's near-term prospects, with Polymarket pricing just a 23% probability of the asset reaching $150,000 before 2027. The odds improve at lower price targets, with a 47% chance of hitting $120,000 and an 80% chance of staying above $100,000. These figures contrast with bullish projections from major analyst firms, which still expect significant price gains in 2026.

Federal Reserve policy decisions remain a critical factor influencing crypto market sentiment. The central bank's December 2025 rate cuts contributed to a short-lived price rally earlier in the year but failed to sustain momentum in the fourth quarter. Market participants are now closely watching for further easing measures, which could rekindle investor interest in risk assets like Bitcoin.

Why Did Bitcoin's Price Stabilize?

Bitcoin has been consolidating within a $4,500 range for nearly three weeks, indicating market uncertainty and lack of directional clarity. This pattern follows a sharp correction from its October 2025 peak of $126,080, where leveraged positions totaling $19 billion were liquidated. The lack of clear leadership from institutional investors has left retail traders as a dominant force in shaping price action.

Weak ETF flows have contributed to the recent sideways movement. BlackRock, one of the largest ETF providers, transferred $214 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase Prime as it managed liquidity amid redemptions in December 2025. These adjustments reflect broader industry caution rather than a dramatic shift in sentiment.

What Are Analysts Watching For Next?

Technical indicators remain bearish, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registering a score of 23—its lowest since late December 2025. This reading aligns with a market psychology skewed toward fear rather than optimism. However, some analysts remain confident in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, citing potential rate cuts in 2026 and regulatory developments like the GENIUS Act as key catalysts.

Market watchers are also monitoring the Federal Reserve's leadership transition. While Chair Jerome Powell has not confirmed whether he will stay on as a board member after his chairmanship ends in May 2026, the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee remains a wildcard for monetary policy direction. This uncertainty affects not only traditional financial markets but also crypto assets, which tend to move with broader liquidity conditions as reported by FXStreet.