Bitcoin's $125K Bet: Odds Rise to 44.4%

Bitcoin's chances of reaching $125,000 by June have risen, according to onchain options protocol Derive's head of research, Dr. Sean Dawson. In a Feb. 13 markets report, Dawson stated that the probability of Bitcoin (BTC) hitting this price level by mid-year has improved to 44.4%, up from 41.9%.

Meanwhile, the likelihood of Bitcoin touching $75,000 before June has decreased to 12.1%, down from 17.8%. This suggests that traders are increasingly betting on an upside for the cryptocurrency. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has a more bearish outlook, predicting a potential pullback towards the $70,000 to $75,000 range, which he believes could trigger a "mini financial crisis."

Bitcoin last traded around $75,000 on Nov. 8, 2020, just three days after the U.S. presidential election. This marked the beginning of a month-long rally that pushed Bitcoin to $100,000 for the first time on Dec. 5, 2020. As of publication, Bitcoin is trading at around $97,000.

Crypto trader Jelles has noted that until Bitcoin reclaims $100,000, choppy market conditions are likely to persist. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, showed a "Neutral" score of 48 out of 100 on Feb. 14. Asset manager VanEck projected in December that the bull market will reach a "medium-term peak" in the first quarter of 2025, with Bitcoin potentially trading at around $180,000 and ETH above $6,000 at the cycle's apex.