Bitcoin's 12% Breakout Potential: Why Now Is the Time to Position for the Next Move

Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture. After months of consolidation, the cryptocurrency is poised for a potential 12% breakout, driven by a confluence of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic catalysts. With the December 2025 options expiry now in the rearview mirror and key resistance levels in sight, investors are being presented with a rare opportunity to position for a sustained upward move.

Technical Catalysts: A Bullish Confluence

Bitcoin's price action in December 2025 has been characterized by a tight trading range between $85,000 and $90,000, a pattern enforced by heavy options exposure and dealer hedging activities. However, this range has now been disrupted. The critical resistance level at $94,253-the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the April 2025 low to the October 2025 all-time high-has emerged as a focal point for technical analysts. A daily close above this level could trigger a move toward the psychologically significant $100,000 mark.

The formation of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart further underscores the potential for a bullish breakout. Historical data suggests that such patterns often act as continuation signals in bull markets, with a projected target of $105,000 if the $90,500 resistance is breached. Crucially, Bitcoin has held above the $85,000 support level, a strong demand zone that aligns with prior accumulation phases. This resilience indicates that the market is absorbing selling pressure, a prerequisite for a sustained upward move.

On-Chain Metrics: A Cyclical Bottom Confirmed

On-chain data provides further validation for the bullish case. The Puell Multiple, a metric that measures miner revenue relative to issuance, has entered a "buy" zone, signaling miner capitulation and a cyclical bottom. This is a recurring pattern in Bitcoin's history, often preceding prolonged bull runs.

Whale activity also tells a compelling story. Large holders have resumed aggressive accumulation, absorbing sell-side pressure from retail investors. This shift in sentiment-from extreme fear to cautious optimism-suggests that institutional and long-term investors are positioning for a reacceleration in price. The Bitcoin regime score, currently at 16.3%, is in the upper neutral zone, a historically bullish environment. Meanwhile, the liquidation heatmap shows bid orders extending to $127,000, hinting at latent demand that could materialize once near-term volatility subsides.

Options Expiry: The Catalyst for a Breakout

The December 26 options expiry served as a critical catalyst. With over $27 billion in open interest on Deribit and a put-call ratio of 0.38, the market was heavily skewed toward a bullish resolution. The "max pain" point-where the most options expire worthless-was identified at $96,000, reinforcing the upside bias.

Post-expiry, Bitcoin's price stabilized and surged 8.5% to $94,400 in early January 2026, marking the beginning of a transition from defensive deleveraging to selective re-risking. The removal of over 45% of outstanding options positions eliminated structural constraints, allowing the market to respond to genuine supply and demand dynamics. This "gamma flush" has cleared the decks for a potential breakout, as dealers no longer need to hedge positions that previously capped volatility.

Post-Expiry Outlook: A Path to $100,000

The immediate focus for Bitcoin is the $94,000 level, a threshold that could determine its trajectory in the new year. If Bitcoin sustains a break above this level, it could trigger a retest of the $100,000 psychological barrier. The liquidation heatmap and historical seasonal patterns-such as the "Santa Rally"- suggest that the market is primed for a 5–7% upward move during the holiday season.

Structural factors also support a bullish outlook. Easing Federal Reserve policy and record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have created persistent buy-side pressure. On-chain behavior indicates that large holders are reducing aggressive selling, while long-term wallets are distributing at a measured pace, supporting a more sustainable price action profile.

Conclusion: Positioning for the Next Move

The convergence of technical, on-chain, and options-driven catalysts makes a compelling case for Bitcoin's 12% breakout potential. With the December expiry behind it and key resistance levels in sight, the market is now free to respond to genuine demand. Investors who position now-whether through spot exposure, options, or ETFs-stand to benefit from a potential reacceleration in price. As the old adage goes, "The trend is your friend," and the current trend for Bitcoin is unmistakably bullish.