Is Bitcoin's 12% Breakout Imminent - or Being Sabotaged by Ultra-Long Holders?

Bitcoin's price has lingered near the $90,000 support level in late 2025, sparking debates about whether a 12% breakout to $99,000 is imminent-or whether structural forces, particularly the behavior of ultra-long holders, are stifling upward momentum. On-chain data and behavioral patterns offer a nuanced answer, revealing a market in transition between consolidation and potential reacceleration.

ETF-Driven Liquidity and On-Chain Dynamics

The year 2025 has been defined by the structural impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have injected over $50 billion in institutional capital into the market. These inflows have not only stabilized price volatility but also created a feedback loop where ETF demand absorbs more than 1% of Bitcoin's daily supply. However, on-chain metrics suggest that this liquidity is not uniformly distributed. Short-term holders (STHs), who control 31% of the total supply-the highest since July 2021-have become key liquidity providers during price swings. Their cost basis and realized price movements often signal turning points, with recent data showing STHs flush with profits and less inclined to sell aggressively.

Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs)-those holding Bitcoin for over six months-have shifted from net selling to net accumulation in late 2025. This reversal, noted by analysts like Ki Young Ju, marks the end of a major sell-pressure event since 2019 and aligns with broader institutional adoption trends, including corporate treasury allocations and sovereign reserves. Yet the narrative is not entirely bullish: ultra-long holders (coins held for over five years) have seen modest selling activity, with 1.6 million BTC re-entering circulation since 2024. This deliberate distribution, facilitated by deep institutional liquidity, has reduced ownership concentration but also raised questions about whether these early investors are capping Bitcoin's upside.

HODL Waves and the Age of Supply

HODL Waves data provides critical insights into market structure. The 2-5 year holding band has seen a 31% decline in total BTC holdings since November 2023, suggesting older cohorts are strategically adjusting positions ahead of Bitcoin's 4-year price cycle. Conversely, the surge in short-term active supply-now 31% of total supply-reflects new retail participation during a volatile period. This dynamic mirrors historical market tops, where FOMO-driven buying of younger coins coincides with selling of older holdings.

The inverse relationship between long-term supply and price further complicates the breakout narrative. As LTHs begin selling during price rises, it often signals proximity to a market peak. Yet recent on-chain data shows LTHs stabilizing their holdings, with over 10,700 BTC entering long-term accumulation in late 2025. This shift, coupled with reduced exchange reserves and high ETF holdings, suggests structural demand is outweighing distribution pressures.

NVT Metrics and Undervaluation Signals

Bitcoin's Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has entered a rare "Golden Cross," indicating undervaluation relative to network activity. This metric historically precedes accumulation phases where LTHs absorb supply, preventing utility erosion. Additionally, the Puell Multiple-a measure of miner selling pressure remains below overheated thresholds, suggesting miners are not forced sellers. These factors imply that the current price consolidation is part of a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a bearish exhaustion.

However, the NVT regime also highlights structural bottlenecks. Despite robust ETF inflows, liquidity remains fragmented on centralized venues like Binance, with weak inter-exchange flows suppressing volatility. This has pinned Bitcoin in a $81,000–$93,000 range through Q1 2026. The "underwater supply wall"-coins below $45,880- further complicates breakouts, as deeper corrections could reignite selling from marginal holders.

Institutional Demand vs. Ultra-Long Holder Influence

The tension between institutional demand and ultra-long holder behavior is central to Bitcoin's trajectory. While ETFs and corporate treasuries are absorbing supply, the intentional distribution by whales-worth $138 billion at current prices-has created a paradox: reduced ownership concentration coexists with potential upside resistance. This deliberate selling, however, may be nearing saturation, with two-year supply metrics stabilizing above 12.16 million BTC.

Fibonacci retracement levels and Elliott Wave analysis add further context. Bitcoin's current position near the 38.2% retracement level ($98,100) and Wave 4 suggests a potential rebound toward $92.5K–$93.4K if buyers defend the $90,000 support. A sustained break above $100,000 would confirm bullish momentum, but the risk of a pullback to $80,000–$69,000 remains if short-term holders capitulate.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

Bitcoin's 12% breakout is neither guaranteed nor impossible. On-chain data reveals a market in transition: LTHs are stabilizing their positions, ETF-driven demand is structural, and NVT metrics suggest undervaluation. Yet the deliberate distribution by ultra-long holders and liquidity bottlenecks highlight risks to a clean breakout. The coming months will hinge on whether institutional adoption and infrastructure scaling can overcome these structural headwinds. For now, the market appears in a phase of quiet accumulation, with the balance of power shifting toward long-term holders and institutional buyers.