Bitcoin's $116k Test: Whales Sell, Institutions Buy in High-Stakes Battle

Bitcoin Whales Sell 147,000 BTC Since August, Fastest Selloff Of Cycle

Bitcoin’s largest holders, commonly referred to as “whales,” have offloaded a net 147,000 BTC over the past 30 days, valued at approximately $16.5 billion at current prices, marking the fastest monthly selloff of the cycle. This aggressive distribution, according to CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, reflects a 2.7% decline in whale holdings, with long-term holder (LTH) whales—those holding coins for six months to one year—accounting for much of the activity. Transfers of 8,000–9,000 BTC each, averaging $930 million per transaction, have contributed to heightened market volatility as Bitcoin hovers near $116,000, a critical psychological and technical barrier.

The selloff has intensified near-term uncertainty, with analysts noting that whale activity often signals strategic profit-taking or a shift in market sentiment. Blockchain data reveals that multiple large wallets, holding 5,000–20,000 BTC each, have moved coins to exchanges, creating sell walls and amplifying price swings. While whales typically stagger sales to avoid market crashes, the pace and coordination of recent moves have raised alarms. Traders on platforms like Binance and OKX report increased volatility around the $116,000 level, where Bitcoin has struggled to break above its July 2025 peak of $124,000.

Despite the selling pressure, on-chain metrics indicate a broader trend of declining exchange supply. Glassnode reports that only 11.2% of circulating Bitcoin remains on centralized exchanges, a historically low figure. Meanwhile, institutional demand has surged, with spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., Canada, and China Hong Kong amassing over $180 billion in assets under management. Flows into these funds have remained steady even as whales offload assets. For instance, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw $250 million in net inflows last week, highlighting the divergence between short-term whale activity and long-term institutional strategies.

Macro factors further complicate the outlook. U.S. Treasury yields have spiked to multi-decade highs, and sticky inflation across major economies has prompted central banks to maintain elevated interest rates. Rising real yields strengthen the U.S. dollar, dampening speculative appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin. Whales, likely factoring in these macro headwinds, appear to be locking in profits rather than holding through market turbulence. Analysts at JPMorgan and Fidelity note that while whale selling could temporarily disrupt price action, institutional inflows and corporate treasury demand provide a structural floor for Bitcoin.

Technical analysis underscores the pivotal role of the $116,000 level. A sustained breakout above this threshold could propel Bitcoin toward $128,000–$135,000, while a breakdown risks a pullback to the $105,000–$108,000 support zone. Exchange liquidity has been strained by whale dumping, with perpetual futures funding rates turning negative in the hours following the selloff. However, buyers have shown resilience, absorbing much of the supply without triggering a sharp correction. The tug-of-war between whale distribution and institutional demand defines the current market dynamic, with the next few weeks likely to determine whether Bitcoin consolidates or enters a deeper correction.

Market sentiment remains divided. Optimists argue that whale selling reflects routine profit-taking and could create healthier consolidation zones, citing historical parallels in 2017 and 2021 cycles. Pessimists, however, warn of a potential retest of $100,000, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 61 (“Neutral”) from 74 (“Greed”) amid waning euphoria. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, while acknowledging the short-term volatility, maintains that Bitcoin’s fair value could reach $200,000 by year-end, citing structural imbalances between annual miner supply (165,000 BTC) and institutional demand.

The road ahead hinges on three key triggers: the completion of whale distribution, macroeconomic easing (including potential Fed rate cuts), and sustained ETF inflows. If whales step aside and institutional demand continues to absorb circulating supply, Bitcoin may stabilize and resume its upward trajectory. Conversely, prolonged whale selling or adverse macro conditions could deepen the correction. For now, the market remains in a critical balancing act, with the outcome dependent on the interplay between short-term liquidity dynamics and long-term adoption trends.