Bitcoin’s $115k Support: A Make-or-Break Threshold for $190k Gains or $85k Collapse

Bitcoin’s price has retreated below key support levels, raising concerns among analysts about potential downside risks as the cryptocurrency tests critical support zones between $90,000 and $105,000. As of September 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $116,000, having fallen over 3% this week after breaking below the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) title4^[4]. Technical analysis highlights a pivotal support level at $107,200, with further critical support at $115,500 title1^[1]. If Bitcoin fails to hold these levels, it could trigger a correction, with some analysts warning of a potential decline to $90,000 or even $85,000 title3^[3].

The current price action reflects heightened volatility driven by macroeconomic factors and institutional activity. The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data are closely watched, as they could influence investor sentiment and capital flows title1^[1]. Meanwhile, institutional demand remains robust, with U.S. entities holding 65% more Bitcoin reserves than offshore counterparts. This trend is supported by spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, including a $886 million weekly inflow in recent data title3^[3]. However, liquidity trends suggest a potential for further declines, with order book analysis indicating a deep liquidity cluster at $107,000 that could act as a magnet for price action title4^[4].

Market analysts have diverged in their outlooks. A bullish scenario, supported by historical trends and institutional adoption, projects Bitcoin reaching $190,000 if it sustains above $115,500. This view is championed by analysts like CryptoELITES and Ali Martinez, who argue that institutional confidence and macroeconomic factors could drive a new high above $110,000 title2^[2]. Conversely, bearish forecasts warn of a breakdown below $90,000, which could trigger a deeper correction to $82,000 or $73,000, depending on the acceleration of selling pressure title3^[3]. On-chain indicators from Glassnode further complicate the narrative, labeling the market as “high risk” due to metrics like the MVRV ratio and supply profitability state, which suggest minimal locked-in profits and potential selling pressure .

The interplay between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s price remains a focal point. Bitcoin’s 0.94-year correlation with global M2 money supply underscores its sensitivity to liquidity expansions. Recent data shows global M2 growth of 3.8% since early 2025, with analysts anticipating further liquidity injections from central banks, including potential rate cuts in the Eurozone and China . However, Bitcoin’s internal liquidity dynamics, as measured by the MVRV Z-score, currently indicate a neutral valuation, suggesting room for further appreciation before reaching overbought territory .

Investors are advised to adopt a balanced approach, considering both the long-term potential of Bitcoin as a store of value and the short-term risks of volatility. Technical analysis suggests monitoring key levels such as $115,500 and $107,000, while macroeconomic events like the Federal Reserve’s September 23 speech and PCE data could provide directional cues title2^[2]. Position management and diversification remain critical, particularly as retail sentiment turns bullish despite contrarian signals from liquidity trends title4^[4].