Bitcoin's $110K Pivotal Defense Could Ignite Next Bull Run

Bitcoin is currently trading near $111,000, consolidating after a recent dip and showing early signs of stabilization. On the daily chart, the price has dipped below an ascending channel but has found support around $110,000, aligning with the 100-day moving average. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at approximately 44, indicating weak but not oversold momentum, suggesting the market is in a holding pattern. Should buyers successfully defend this support, the next key resistance levels lie at $116,000 and the historical high of $124,000. However, a breakdown below $110,000 could trigger a decline toward the $104,000 demand zone.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has broken out of a descending channel and is now trading within a smaller ascending structure, retesting the critical $110,000–$111,000 zone. This area acts as a key short-term pivot, with RSI hovering around 49, reflecting market indecision. A successful defense of this zone could propel the price toward $114,000, though a clean drop below $109,000 would signal a deeper correction toward the $104,000 support level.

On-chain data reveals a significant decline in exchange reserves, reaching multi-year lows, indicating that more Bitcoin is being moved into cold storage rather than held on exchanges. This trend is consistent with historical patterns and is typically associated with long-term accumulation and reduced sell-side pressure. The steady outflow from exchanges suggests investor confidence remains strong despite short-term volatility, and the reduced on-exchange supply may support a bullish reversal if demand increases.

Historical analysis indicates that Bitcoin may require an 8.7% correction before potentially setting up for another all-time high (ATH). The $101,634 level is a critical Fibonacci retracement point that has historically served as a launching pad for significant price surges. A retracement to this level could provide the necessary reset for momentum before another rally. However, the current Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is declining, suggesting the market is cooling and reducing the likelihood of a sharp decline to this level. Without a dip to the Fibonacci retracement point, the typical historical pattern may not hold, potentially delaying BTC’s next ATH.

The recent ATH of $124,290.93, reached on August 14, 2025, arrived earlier than expected, 68 days before the typical November-December window. This shift has been attributed to factors such as the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted significant institutional investment, and macroeconomic conditions like U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Despite the milestone, the market is showing signs of consolidation, with Bitcoin trading about 10% below its peak. Historical patterns suggest post-Halving rallies are often followed by corrections, and the current decline in trading volumes indicates a potential cooling of retail enthusiasm. Moving forward, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will likely depend on macroeconomic developments and continued institutional adoption.