Bitcoin's $110k Lifeline: Will Bulls Defend or Bears Claim the Drop?

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant turbulence in late September 2025, with Bitcoin (BTC) oscillating near $109,000 and Ethereum (ETH) falling below $4,000. Over $1 billion in liquidations were triggered as traders navigated volatile price swings, driven by shifting macroeconomic conditions and evolving market sentiment. Analysts highlight key support levels for Bitcoin, while Ethereum’s decline reflects broader risk-off behavior in the crypto sector.

Bitcoin’s price action has drawn intense scrutiny as it tests critical support zones. Swissblock Technologies identified $110,000 as a pivotal "lifeline support," with historical data indicating struggles to maintain prices above this level during prior market cycles. The short-term holder cost basis, currently at $111,400, serves as another critical metric, with sustained trading below this threshold signaling potential bearish momentum. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, this level represents a battleground between bulls and bears, with a breakdown increasing the risk of further sell-offs.

Market sentiment remains cautiously bearish, underscored by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which plummeted to 28/100—a level last seen in April when Bitcoin traded around $83,000. This extreme fear, as noted by Santiment, often precedes market rebounds, though analysts caution that crowd pessimism may prolong downward pressure. Social media sentiment analysis reveals a surge in bearish predictions, with retail traders forecasting prices as low as $70,000, despite institutional activity suggesting accumulation at lower levels.

Ethereum’s decline below $4,000 has exacerbated concerns about broader market weakness. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has struggled to regain traction amid declining investor confidence. While Ethereum’s on-chain metrics show mixed signals, the lack of a clear catalyst for a rebound has left traders wary. The broader market’s 24-hour volume exceeded $60 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for over 40% of total crypto trading activity, highlighting its continued dominance despite the selloff.

Liquidity analysis points to potential price targets for Bitcoin. Hyblock Capital identified a liquidity cluster at $107,000, suggesting this level could act as a magnet for further downside. Meanwhile, order book depth data indicates growing buy orders near $109,000 and $111,000, hinting at possible stabilization if bulls regain control. However, the Swissblock Risk Index, which aggregates on-chain valuation and cost-basis data, remains near zero—a sign of optimism that contrasts with Bitcoin’s 1.7% drop over the past 24 hours.

Analysts remain divided on the near-term outlook. While some argue that extreme fear and social media pessimism could mark a turning point, others warn of prolonged bearish pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainties. A pseudonymous analyst known as Borovik on X has issued bullish predictions for Bitcoin, forecasting a rise to $194,846.63 within three months, though such forecasts remain speculative and unverified. The market’s ability to hold key support levels will be critical in determining whether the current correction evolves into a larger bearish trend or sets the stage for a rebound.

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[8] Analyst Unveils 3-Month Prediction For Bitcoin, XRP, And … (https://www.newsbtc.com/news/3-month-prediction-for-bitcoin/)