Bitcoin’s $110K–$115K Support Zone: Geopolitics and Fed Uncertainty Create Make-or-Break Moment

Bitcoin’s price faced renewed volatility as it tested the $111,000–$119,000 range in late September 2025, with traders split on whether the dip signaled a broader correction or a temporary pullback. The cryptocurrency fell to $112,000, triggering over $1.7 billion in liquidations in a single day—the largest event of the year—according to on-chain analytics firm CoinGlass Watch These Bitcoin Price Triggers as Price Dips to $112,000^[1]. Key support levels, including $113,000–$114,000, saw concentrated short-term liquidation risks, with open interest in futures markets eroding by $2 billion during the decline Watch These Bitcoin Price Triggers as Price Dips to $112,000^[1]. Analysts like Jelle noted the $112,000 level as a “very clean retest,” suggesting a potential rebound to $116,000, while others, such as Captain Faibik, warned of further declines toward the $100,000 zone Watch These Bitcoin Price Triggers as Price Dips to $112,000^[1].

Simultaneously, geopolitical and macroeconomic factors amplified market uncertainty. The U.S. government’s $3 billion arrears to the United Nations—driven by political objections to UNRWA and the Human Rights Council—added to systemic risks. President Trump’s continued criticism of the UN, including his executive order to withhold funding for agencies deemed “compromised,” intensified concerns about institutional instability. These developments, coupled with the U.S. delaying peacekeeping reimbursements, raised fears of broader liquidity crunches at the UN, which could strain global governance efforts .

The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory further clouded the outlook. With the PCE price index due for release, markets anticipated a 0.25% rate cut at the October 29 meeting. However, diverging views among Fed officials—seven of 19 dissenting against further cuts—highlighted risks of a hawkish pivot, potentially dampening risk assets like Bitcoin. The Fed’s dovish stance had previously buoyed Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs, but recent data on inflation and labor market weakness created a tug-of-war between easing and tightening pressures Watch These Bitcoin Price Triggers as Price Dips to $112,000^[1].

Meanwhile, institutional and whale activity underscored mixed signals. CoinMarketCap reported that whales holding 1,721 BTC ($196 million) added to their positions in August 2025, while exchange inflows hit $22.78 billion in 24 hours, signaling profit-taking Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction For 2025 & Beyond - CoinMarketCap^[2]. On-chain metrics, such as the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, indicated a “pre-euphoria” phase, with long-term holders’ profitability diverging from short-term traders—a pattern historically preceding bull market peaks Watch These Bitcoin Price Triggers as Price Dips to $112,000^[1]. Yet, leveraged shorts near $117,000 posed a risk of a squeeze if Bitcoin rebounded sharply.

Political developments also loomed large. Rumors of a U.S. government-announced “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” (SBR) caused immediate market selloffs, as traders anticipated policy shifts. Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn argued the SBR’s potential implementation was “underpriced” by current markets, given ongoing discussions between lawmakers and crypto executives Watch These Bitcoin Price Triggers as Price Dips to $112,000^[1]. However, Trump’s administration had previously failed to enact such policies, casting doubt on the likelihood of near-term implementation.

The confluence of these factors—technical price action, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty—has positioned Bitcoin at a critical juncture. While institutional demand and regulatory progress remain bullish catalysts, the $110,000–$115,000 support zone will be pivotal in determining whether the asset enters a consolidation phase or resumes its upward trajectory.