Bitcoin at $110,000: Strategic Entry Point Amid Volatility?

Bitcoin’s recent pullback to $110,000 in September 2025 has ignited a critical debate: Is this a strategic entry point for long-term investors, or a warning sign of deeper bearish pressure? The answer lies in dissecting the interplay of technical indicators, macroeconomic tailwinds, and institutional behavior.

Technical Indicators: A Mixed but Manageable Outlook

Bitcoin’s price action around $110,000 reveals a tug-of-war between bearish momentum and potential accumulation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, dropping to 33.6 in late August before stabilizing at 46.96 by mid-September, suggesting a possible reversal [1]. Analysts have noted a hidden bullish divergence in the RSI—a sign that market strength may outpace price weakness [6]. This divergence, coupled with Bitcoin trading above the 200-day moving average ($101,604), reinforces a long-term bullish bias [5].

However, shorter-term averages paint a cautionary picture. Bitcoin has broken below its 50- and 100-day moving averages, confirming a near-term downtrend [3]. The 100-day EMA at $110,697 and the 50-period EMA at $110,424 are now critical levels to watch. A sustained close above these could trigger a rebound toward $116,000, while a breakdown below $105K would test the $93K–$95K support floor [1].

Market Sentiment: Fear, Seasonality, and Institutional Shifts

The Fear & Greed Index for cryptocurrencies has plunged into the “fear” zone, reflecting heightened caution among retail traders [2]. This aligns with historical patterns: September has been a weak month for Bitcoin since 2013, averaging a -3.77% return [6]. Seasonal selling pressure, driven by tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing, has historically caused 7.5% declines during this period [5].

Yet institutional activity tells a different story. Whale accumulation remains robust, with addresses holding 100+ BTC reaching record highs of 19,130 [3]. Notably, a major Bitcoin whale—dubbed the “Bitcoin OG”—offloaded $435 million in BTC to accumulate $433 million in ETH, signaling a broader diversification trend [5]. While this shift may temporarily pressure Bitcoin, it also highlights a maturing market where institutional players are strategically reallocating capital [3].

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Policy and Dollar Weakness

The Federal Reserve’s September meeting looms as a pivotal catalyst. Markets are pricing in a 91.7% probability of a rate cut, which could boost liquidity and favor risk assets like Bitcoin [6]. A weaker U.S. dollar, driven by accommodative monetary policy, historically correlates with Bitcoin’s performance, adding another layer of support [4].

Additionally, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and gold suggests it may benefit from a broader risk-on environment. If gold’s safe-haven appeal wanes post-rate cuts, capital could flow back into crypto [1].

Strategic Entry Point: Balancing Risk and Reward

For long-term investors, the $110,000 level offers a nuanced opportunity. Historically, bull-market corrections average 17% peak-to-trough, and Bitcoin’s 13% decline from its $124,457 high suggests the pullback may be nearing its upper limit [1]. Key support zones at $105K and $93K–$95K provide clear risk management parameters.

However, caution is warranted. A breakdown below $105K could invite a test of the $100K level, historically a psychological floor for Bitcoin [5]. Investors should monitor ETF flows and on-chain volume for signs of accumulation. The recent $1.3 billion inflow into Bitcoin ETFs in a single week [4] contrasts with August’s $751 million outflows, indicating a potential shift in institutional sentiment.

Actionable Insights

1. Position at Key Support: Consider accumulating Bitcoin near $105K–$110K, with a stop-loss below $100K to mitigate downside risk.
2. Monitor Macro Catalysts: The Fed’s September decision and Trump’s re-election speculation could drive liquidity shifts.
3. Leverage Diversification: Allocate a portion of crypto exposure to Ethereum, which is attracting institutional interest amid Bitcoin’s consolidation [5].

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s $110,000 level represents a strategic inflection point. While short-term volatility and seasonal headwinds persist, the confluence of oversold technical conditions, institutional accumulation, and macroeconomic tailwinds suggests this pullback could be a high-probability entry for long-term investors.

Source:
[1] How Low Can Bitcoin Go in September 2025? BTC Price Predictions Analysis [https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-low-can-bitcoin-go-in-september-2025-btc-price-predictions-analysis/]
[2] Bitcoin Stuck Around $110,000: Is $105,000 Or $115,000 Next? [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-stuck-around-110-000-121348205.html]
[3] BTC Whale Now Holds $3.8B in ETH, Signaling Market Maturity [https://www.blockchain-council.org/bitcoin/btc-whale-3-8b-eth-market-maturity/]
[4] Bitcoin ETF Flows Pass $1.3B -- Analysts Highlight APT [https://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/news/indnewswire/bitcoin-etf-flows-pass-1-3b-185958228.html]
[5] Bitcoin CME gap driving market recovery in the short term [https://yieldfund.com/bitcoin-cme-gap-driving-market-recovery-in-the-short-term/]
[6] Bitcoin (BTC) Tests Key Support at $111K as $5B in [https://blockchain.news/news/20250905-bitcoin-btc-tests-key-support-at-111k-as-5b-in]