Bitcoin's 1064-Day Cycle and the Impending Market Bottom in October 2026

Bitcoin's price history has long been characterized by cyclical patterns, with the 1064-day cycle emerging as a recurring feature in both bull and bear markets. For long-term investors, understanding these cycles is critical to strategic positioning. Recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin may reach a major market bottom in October 2026, following a 364-day correction period after its October 2025 peak. This article examines the historical validity of the 1064-day cycle, the implications for 2026, and actionable strategies for investors navigating this predictable yet volatile landscape.

The 1064-Day Cycle: A Historical Pattern

Bitcoin's bull cycles have consistently aligned with a 1064-day (approximately 2.9-year) duration from market lows to peaks. For instance, the 2015–2017 bull run lasted 1,050 days, while the 2018–2021 cycle spanned 1,071 days. The most recent cycle, beginning with a low of $16,000 in November 2022, reached a peak of $126,198 in October 2025, completing 1,064 days. This pattern has been corroborated by analysts such as Ali Martinez and CryptoJelle, who argue that Bitcoin's cycles are deeply tied to halving events and investor behavior.

Following a bull peak, historical data indicates a 364-day (12-month) bearish correction. The 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 bear markets adhered to this timeline, with prices dropping by 84.22% and 77.57%, respectively. If this pattern holds, the current correction-beginning in October 2025-could bottom in October 2026, with prices potentially falling 70–80% from the peak to around $37,500.

Strategic Positioning for Long-Term Investors

For investors seeking to capitalize on cyclical bottoms, proactive strategies are essential. Academic research highlights that active investment approaches aligned with Bitcoin's cycles can outperform passive buy-and-hold strategies. A study using technical analysis demonstrated statistically significant outperformance in 10 out of 13 overlapping sample windows, with positive alpha coefficients at the 5% significance level. These strategies involve scaling into positions during bear markets and exiting near projected peaks, leveraging on-chain metrics and historical volatility patterns.

1. Position Sizing and Risk Management

Volatility-adjusted position sizing is a cornerstone of risk management. Professionals recommend using frameworks like the modified Kelly Criterion to normalize risk, ensuring no single position exceeds 2% of a portfolio's risk capital. For example, during the 2022–2025 bull cycle, investors who gradually increased allocations as Bitcoin approached its peak avoided overexposure during the subsequent correction.

2. Stop-Loss and Dollar-Cost Averaging

Volatility-based stop-loss strategies, such as using Average True Range (ATR), help mitigate emotional trading during sharp declines. Additionally, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) allows investors to accumulate Bitcoin at varying price points, reducing the impact of short-term volatility. During the 2018–2019 bear market, DCA strategies limited losses for investors who maintained disciplined buying schedules.

3. Macro-Level Considerations

Bitcoin's performance is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors. Research using the QARDL method reveals that rising U.S. inflation and economic policy uncertainty have negatively impacted Bitcoin returns in recent years. As central banks approach the end of tightening cycles, however, Bitcoin may benefit from falling interest rates and reduced opportunity costs for non-yielding assets. Investors should monitor these indicators to adjust allocations accordingly.

Portfolio Allocation and Institutional Trends

Historically, a 5% allocation to Bitcoin has enhanced portfolio efficiency, particularly in terms of risk-adjusted returns. Institutional adoption, including Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases, has further stabilized price dynamics, reducing the severity of corrections compared to earlier cycles. For example, during the 2024–2025 bear phase, institutional buying absorbed much of the selling pressure, preventing a deeper downturn.

Long-term investors should consider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset rather than a speculative trade. Bitwise's capital market assumptions project a 28.3% compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin, with a 32.9% volatility profile and a 0.39 correlation to U.S. stocks. This makes Bitcoin a valuable diversifier in portfolios seeking growth and resilience against macroeconomic shocks.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's 1064-day cycle, validated by historical data and market observations, offers a framework for anticipating market bottoms and peaks. While October 2026 is projected as a potential bottom, investors must remain agile, employing disciplined risk management and macroeconomic awareness. By aligning strategies with cyclical patterns and institutional trends, long-term investors can position themselves to navigate volatility while capturing Bitcoin's growth potential.