Bitcoin's $105K Support and the Impending Crypto Market Rebound

The Bitcoin market in October 2025 is at a pivotal inflection point. After a dramatic rally to an all-time high of $126,293Bitcoin Technical Analysis Report 10 October, 2025^[1], the asset has entered a corrective phase, testing critical support levels. The $105K mark-once a psychological threshold in July 2025-has reemerged as a linchpin for the market's next move. Technical analysis, on-chain metrics, and institutional sentiment all suggest that this support level could catalyze a sustained rebound, potentially propelling Bitcoin toward new highs.

Technical Analysis: Fibonacci Retracements and Key Support Zones

Bitcoin's recent price action has been deeply influenced by Fibonacci retracement levels. After a sharp correction from $126K to $105K, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $105K) has acted as a robust support zoneBitcoin: New All-Time High, but Caution Required^[2]. This level, often referred to as the "Golden Ratio," has historically marked turning points in Bitcoin's cycles. For instance, in early 2025, Bitcoin found temporary support near this level during a broader consolidation phaseBitcoin Price Prediction 2025: BTC Holds Strong at $105K Mark^[3].

The RSI and MACD indicators further reinforce the case for a rebound. While the RSI has trended near overbought territory (70), the MACD line remains above its signal line, signaling sustained bullish momentumBitcoin October 2025 Rally: Why Prices Peaked^[4]. Additionally, Bitcoin's price has stabilized above the lower Bollinger Band, a sign that volatility is compressing and a breakout may be imminentBitcoin Technical Analysis Report 10 October, 2025^[1].

However, caution is warranted. A breakdown below $119,345-a key intermediate support level-could trigger a retest of $117,500 or even $108,200Bitcoin: New All-Time High, but Caution Required^[2]. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a failure to hold above $119K could delay the broader bullish narrative.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation and Institutional Confidence

On-chain data paints a picture of strong accumulation by long-term holders. Over 70% of Bitcoin's circulating supply remains untouched for more than a yearBitcoin Price Prediction 2025: BTC/USDT Forecast^[5], a sign that "strong hands" are retaining their positions despite short-term volatility. Whale activity has also surged, with a notable increase in addresses holding over $10 million in BTCBitcoin Price Prediction 2025: BTC/USDT Forecast^[5]. This suggests that institutional and high-net-worth investors are viewing the current price correction as an opportunity to accumulate.

The MVRV Z-Score-a metric that measures the ratio of realized value to market value-also indicates a healthy bull market cycle. After a dip to $75K in Q3 2025, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score normalized, suggesting that the selloff was part of a typical correction rather than a bear marketBitcoin Barometer: Q3 2025 Forecast^[6]. Meanwhile, Value Days Destroyed (VDD) data shows increased selling pressure from short-term holders, further reinforcing the idea that long-term investors are net buyersBitcoin Barometer: Q3 2025 Forecast^[6].

Market Sentiment: Institutional Inflows and Regulatory Clarity

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by unprecedented institutional adoption. Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $3.2 billion in inflows in a single week of October 2025Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025: BTC/USDT Forecast^[5], with U.S.-listed ETFs holding 1.32 million BTCBitcoin's Near-Term Price Trajectory: A Clash of Futures Optimism and Spot Demand Resilience^[7]. This surge is fueled by regulatory clarity, including the passage of the CLARITY Act and the Anti-CBDC Act, which have created a more favorable policy environment for crypto adoptionBitcoin Price Prediction 2025: BTC/USDT Forecast^[5].

Derivatives data also supports a bullish outlook. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has surged to 72,710 contracts, reflecting heightened speculative activityBitcoin's Near-Term Price Trajectory: A Clash of Futures Optimism and Spot Demand Resilience^[7]. However, this optimism comes with risks: $10 billion in long positions could be liquidated if Bitcoin falls below $104,500Bitcoin's Near-Term Price Trajectory: A Clash of Futures Optimism and Spot Demand Resilience^[7].

The Path Forward: A Rebound or a Deeper Correction?

The coming weeks will be critical for Bitcoin's trajectory. If the $105K support holds, technical indicators suggest a potential rally to $124,255 and beyondBitcoin: New All-Time High, but Caution Required^[2]. A weekly close above $110K could trigger short liquidations and propel the price toward $130KBitcoin's Near-Term Price Trajectory: A Clash of Futures Optimism and Spot Demand Resilience^[7]. Conversely, a breakdown below $105K could lead to a retest of the $80K–$90K range, where additional support existsBitcoin Price Prediction 2025: BTC Holds Strong at $105K Mark^[3].

Macro factors will also play a role. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish policy and low inflation (2.3% as of mid-2025Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025: BTC/USDT Forecast^[5]) have created a "debasement trade" that favors Bitcoin. However, geopolitical tensions and unexpected regulatory shifts could introduce volatility.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $105K support level is more than a technical benchmark-it's a psychological and structural fulcrum for the market's next phase. With strong on-chain accumulation, institutional inflows, and favorable macro conditions, the case for a rebound is compelling. However, traders must remain vigilant, as overbought conditions and speculative positioning could lead to short-term turbulence. For those with a long-term horizon, the current correction offers a unique opportunity to participate in what could be the next leg of Bitcoin's bull run.