Bitcoin's $105K Analyst Call vs. The Stalled Bill: What's Priced In?

The market is caught in a classic tug-of-war between two narratives. On one side, a powerful technical setup suggests a bullish breakout is imminent. On the other, a concrete regulatory headwind has just emerged. The core question for any expectation arbitrageur is: what is the market actually pricing in right now?

The technical case for a move higher is compelling. Crypto trader DonAlt points to a classic bear trap forming, with Bitcoin's recent price action trapping shorts above the $92,000 level. He argues this failed breakdown is one of the most reliable bullish signals, setting up a potential squeeze toward $105,000. This creates a whisper number for the near term-a clear, quantifiable target for those betting on a breakout.

Yet this analytical optimism exists against a starkly different reality. The major regulatory catalyst that many had been anticipating has stalled. Senator Tim Scott has postponed the Senate Banking Committee vote on the crypto bill. This isn't just a minor delay; it's a reset of the forward view for policy certainty. For a market that had been buying the rumor of regulatory clarity, this is a tangible guidance reset.

The market's reaction has been decisive. Despite the bullish technicals, digital asset prices tumbled across the board in a broad-based selloff. This move indicates that the regulatory delay is now being priced in as a near-term headwind, overriding the technical setup. The expectation gap is clear: the market is pricing in a significant delay, which may have been underappreciated relative to the technical setup for a breakout. The selloff suggests traders are now focused on the new reality of uncertainty, not the old whisper number of a $105K target.

The Regulatory Reset: What the Stalled Bill Means for Market Sentiment

The stalled Senate vote is more than a procedural hiccup; it's a direct reset of the market's forward view on institutional adoption. The bill, which had already passed the House in July 2025, was the key piece of legislation many had been counting on to clarify the regulatory framework. Its delay introduces a period of uncertainty that directly challenges the "whisper number" of a smooth, predictable path for institutional capital.

For the expectation arbitrageur, the critical question is what this delay prices in. The market consensus had been building toward a normalized ecosystem, with the bill seen as a catalyst for a "buy the rumor" phase. Now, that narrative is on hold. As broker Benchmark noted, delayed markups could give Congress time to resolve issues that may determine how, and whether, institutions fully enter U.S. crypto markets. This is a double-edged sword. While it might lead to a better final product, the interim uncertainty is a powerful deterrent. Institutional players often wait for regulatory clarity before committing large sums; a stalled bill removes that clarity.

The bottom line is a reset of expectations. The guidance has been reset from a near-term legislative win to an open-ended negotiation. This isn't just a delay in a process; it's a shift in the perceived timeline for normalized participation. For now, the market is pricing in a longer wait, which may have been underappreciated relative to the technical bullishness. The expectation gap has widened, with the reality of regulatory friction now a more prominent factor than the old whisper number of a swift, positive resolution.

The Financial Mechanics: Deleveraging and the Path to $105K

The technical setup for a $105,000 breakout is now supported by clear on-chain and derivatives data. The market has undergone a significant deleveraging phase, which analysts view as a critical bottoming formation. Bitcoin's open interest has plunged over 31% from its 2025 peak, now stabilizing around $10 billion. This decline, triggered by massive liquidations, has pushed open interest below its 180-day moving average, clearing the system for a potential bullish recovery.

This deleveraging is the financial mechanics behind the bullish signal. Historically, such periods of excessive leverage being purged from the system have often marked significant bottoms. The market reset that followed the October crash has created a stronger base, with positioning now shifting back toward bullish territory. The key technical level to watch is $92,000; holding above it is seen as essential for validating the bullish reversal signal. The recent price action, including a 3% rally over the past 24 hours, suggests the worst of the correction may be over.

So, does the current selloff represent a healthy reset or deeper capitulation? From an expectation arbitrageur's lens, the evidence points to the former. The massive liquidations that drove the deleveraging were the market's way of burning off the speculative excess that had been priced in. The subsequent drop in open interest and the move below the 180-day average were the necessary clearing of that overhang. The market is now in a lower-volatility compression phase, a condition that historically precedes significant breakouts. The selloff, therefore, appears to be the healthy reset that sets the stage for the $105,000 target, not a sign of deeper capitulation. The whisper number of a $105K squeeze is now supported by a cleaner, less leveraged market structure.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch for the Thesis

The setup now hinges on a few critical forward-looking signals. The market has priced in a regulatory delay, but its duration and outcome will determine whether the technical breakout thesis prevails or the overhang wins.

The primary catalyst is the rescheduling of the Senate Banking Committee vote. This event will be a major signal for market sentiment. As broker Benchmark noted, delayed markups could give Congress time to resolve issues that may determine institutional participation. The market consensus had been building toward a normalized ecosystem; the vote's outcome will confirm or contradict that path. A positive resolution could quickly reset expectations, while a further delay would cement the current uncertainty.

Key watchpoints for the technical thesis are Bitcoin's ability to hold the $92,000 support level and the trajectory of open interest and spot volume. The current bullish signal is predicated on a failed breakdown above that level. A close back below $90,000 would signal a failed breakout and likely lead to a flush lower, invalidating the current setup. Meanwhile, the deleveraging phase, with open interest now stabilizing around $10 billion, has created a cleaner base. The market needs to hold $92,000 for the breakout to remain valid.

The major risk is that the regulatory delay extends further, allowing the "Red September" selloff momentum to reassert itself. The September crash saw Bitcoin lose over $160 billion in value in days, a level of panic that could easily return if policy uncertainty persists. This would directly challenge the current expectation gap, where technical strength is being weighed against regulatory friction. The recent broad-based selloff, with digital asset prices tumbling across the board, shows how quickly sentiment can shift. If the regulatory overhang wins, the market's recent deleveraging and bullish technicals could be rendered irrelevant. The thesis depends on the catalysts outweighing the risks.