Bitcoin's $100K Threshold: Last Bull Run or Final Hurdle?
2min read The $100,000 milestone has long been Bitcoin’s psychological Everest. As of May 16, 2025, Bitcoin trades near $104,175, its proximity to the century mark sparking fervent debates: Is this the climax of a historic bull run, or the last gasp of an overextended market? Technical analysis and historical cycles suggest caution—not because the $100K level isn’t support, but because the tools of momentum are now pointing to exhaustion. Here’s why investors should prioritize profit-taking now.
The Elliott Wave Conundrum: A 5th Wave in Its Final Stages
Elliott Wave theory offers a stark warning. Bitcoin’s current rally fits a textbook extended 5th wave, the final impulsive leg of a bull cycle. The wave began in mid-2024, targeting $100K+, but its prolonged nature—subdivided into its own sub-waves—hints at waning momentum.
- Wave Dynamics: Analysts at SiDec note Bitcoin has completed three sub-waves of this 5th phase. The ongoing correction (Wave [4]) risks testing the $99,875 support. If breached, the final push (Wave [5]) could falter, signaling the bull cycle’s end.
- Historical Precedent: Every Bitcoin cycle since 2013 has followed this pattern. The 2017 peak at $20K and 2021’s $69K high both unfolded as 5th waves, each followed by multi-year corrections. The current wave’s extension into 2025 mirrors these cycles, suggesting the top is near.
RSI Overbought Divergence: A Technical Red Flag
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) paints an even clearer picture. While Bitcoin’s price climbs toward $105K, its weekly RSI has formed lower highs, a classic bearish divergence. This mismatch between price and momentum signals overbought conditions and weakens the rally’s sustainability.
- 2017 vs. 2021 Parallels:
- In 2017, RSI divergence preceded Bitcoin’s $20K peak by two months.
- In 2021, a similar divergence at $64K and $69K preceded a 78% crash.
- Today’s RSI at 72.5—again showing divergence—aligns with these precursors.
Bullish Narratives, Bearish Realities
Bitcoin’s peaks have historically coincided with overwhelming bullish sentiment, often tied to regulatory tailwinds or institutional adoption.
- 2017: The ICO boom and media frenzy drove prices to $20K, only to collapse amid regulatory crackdowns.
- 2021: ETF approvals and Elon Musk’s Tesla announcement fueled a $69K peak, followed by a 77% correction.
- 2025: The U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve and $320M in Bitcoin ETF inflows mirror these "final rally" narratives. Yet, as in prior cycles, this optimism may be the last exhale before the exhale.
On-Chain Health vs. Technical Exhaustion
On-chain metrics suggest mixed signals. Bitcoin’s exchange outflows and rising long-term holder percentages (+63.6%) indicate robust accumulation. However, technicals and cycles warn of a pendulum swing:
- Volatility Clues: The $100K level’s 7-day hold is fragile. A close below $102K could trigger a plunge to $92K, per analysts at Charting Guy.
- Structural Risks: An ending diagonal pattern (common in terminal 5th waves) could form, signaling a crash to $60K by 2026.
The Bottom Line: Take Profits—Now
The $100K threshold is both a psychological floor and a warning. While Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, the tools of momentum—RSI divergence, Elliott Wave exhaustion, and cyclical parallels—paint a precarious picture. Investors should:
- Lock in gains on rallies toward $105K–$109K.
- Set stops below $102K to avoid the next leg down.
- Monitor Fibonacci levels: A break below $99K risks a freefall to $92K.
Bitcoin’s next move isn’t about the $100K milestone—it’s about recognizing that every historic peak has been followed by a reckoning. This time, the technicals say the same story is playing out. Act before the music stops.
