Bitcoin's $100k Surge: Late Bull Run or Early Distribution?

Bitcoin's Price Surge Raises Questions About Market Trajectory and Potential Corrections

Bitcoin's recent price surge past $100,000 has sparked speculation about the market's future trajectory and potential corrections. Analysts are dissecting market indicators, with both retail and institutional investments playing crucial roles in shaping the current bullish sentiment amidst volatility warnings.

Ki Young Ju, a prominent analyst, noted, "We're in the late stage of the #Bitcoin bull market, but I believe there's still room for growth. I'd say we're in the early distribution phase, as new retail investors are entering. Trump's global promotional impact could extend this bull run for another couple of quarters."

Bitcoin's price rise signals impressive growth, but warnings of a potential distribution phase have emerged. Retail and institutional investors drove demand, with key indicators pointing toward future volatility. After a remarkable surge of over 129% in the past year, Bitcoin has crossed the $100k mark, prompting many analysts to declare it in the late stages of its bull market.

While the price rise signals impressive growth, experts are beginning to warn that Bitcoin could be entering the early distribution phase, a typical precursor to the final leg of a bull run before the market experiences a cooling period. As market sentiment shifts and key indicators point toward potential volatility, the question arises: Are we witnessing the peak of this rally, or is there still room for further gains before the inevitable correction?

The Dow Theory offers a useful framework for understanding Bitcoin's current market position by dividing market movements into two key phases: accumulation and distribution. Historically, Bitcoin has followed this cyclical pattern. In 2022, BTC underwent a clear distribution phase, characterized by a decline in prices after the bull run of the previous year.

By the turn of 2023, Bitcoin entered an accumulation phase as investors sought to rebuild positions at lower price levels. This accumulation phase extended through 2024 before transitioning into the current early distribution phase in 2025. Technical inflection points, marked by changes in volume and price structure, have historically signaled these transitions.

A notable feature of the current market phase is the renewed involvement of retail investors. Despite Bitcoin reaching its six-figure milestone, retail participation continues to grow, providing liquidity and driving demand in the market