Is Bitcoin's $100K Support the Final Catalyst for a $135K Rebound?

Bitcoin's $100K support level has emerged as a pivotal battleground in the cryptocurrency's 2025 price narrative. After a volatile correction that briefly pushed prices below this threshold, the market now teeters on the edge of a potential rebound. This article synthesizes technical and sentiment analysis to evaluate whether $100K can catalyze a surge toward $135K-or if a deeper bearish correction looms.

Technical Analysis: A Fragile Equilibrium

Bitcoin's price action around $100K reveals a complex interplay of Fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, and pattern formations. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the November decline has acted as a psychological magnet, with FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noting that Bitcoin's recent break above $91K signaled a potential retest of this golden ratio level. Meanwhile, the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $100K has historically functioned as a critical support, with on-chain data suggesting short-term losses are nearing thresholds that could trigger a rebound.

A bullish falling wedge pattern-formed after Bitcoin's decline from $126K to $106K-adds further intrigue. This pattern, which historically precedes reversals, implies a breakout above $102K could reignite buying interest toward $126K or even $150K. However, the 4-hour chart reveals a compressed descending range with momentum exhaustion evident as prices repeatedly test the $101K–$102K zone. A sustained breakdown below $100K would likely trigger a cascade toward $90K, invalidating the wedge pattern and shifting the bias to a bearish scenario.

Sentiment Analysis: A Battle of Bulls and Bears

Market sentiment remains deeply polarized. The Fear & Greed Index has improved to 25-a cautiously optimistic reading-but this masks underlying fragility. Institutional flows have shifted from inflows to outflows in recent weeks, while short-term holders' cost basis (~$112.5K) has been breached, signaling fading demand. Meanwhile, the "hammer" reversal pattern at $80K and seasonal support hint at a potential rebound to $100K, though this remains contingent on renewed accumulation.

Macro factors, however, tilt toward optimism. U.S. fiscal deficits and dollar weakness have amplified Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against inflation, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed billions in inflows, validating its "digital gold" narrative. Analysts argue the October 2025 dip below $100K-despite triggering $19 billion in liquidations-was a necessary correction to reset excessive leverage and pave the way for institutional re-entry. On-balance volume (OBV) remains robust, suggesting hidden accumulation by large players.

The $135K Path: Technical and Sentiment Convergence

For Bitcoin to reach $135K, three conditions must align:
1. Technical Validation: A successful reclaim of $100K and a breakout above the $109K resistance would confirm a bull flag pattern, targeting $130K–$135K by Q3 2025.
2. Sentiment Shift: Institutional inflows must resume, and the Fear & Greed Index must rise above 50 to signal a shift from caution to optimism according to market analysis.
3. Macro Tailwinds: Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued ETF adoption will be critical to sustain momentum beyond $100K as research shows.

Failure to hold $100K, however, risks a retest of $93K–$94K-a critical level that could either reignite the rally or confirm a bearish trend toward $80K.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Inflection Point

Bitcoin's $100K support is more than a technical level-it's a psychological and macroeconomic fulcrum. If buyers defend this threshold and institutional flows resume, the technical case for a $135K rebound becomes compelling. Conversely, a breakdown would force the market to reckon with deeper corrections. As the battle for $100K intensifies, investors must remain vigilant to both on-chain signals and macro shifts, for the next leg of Bitcoin's journey hinges on this fragile equilibrium.