Bitcoin's $100K Rebound: A Make-or-Break Moment for Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has painted a stark picture of market fragility. After a sharp decline in November and December, the asset closed the year below the critical $96,000 support level, erasing much of its 2025 gains and signaling a deepening bearish sentiment. This collapse coincided with a pivotal shift in on-chain metrics, particularly the MVRV Long/Short Difference, which flipped negative for the first time in nearly three years. Short-term holders now hold more unrealized profits than long-term holders, a dynamic historically linked to increased selling pressure. Meanwhile, the NVT Ratio has surged to levels suggesting an overheated network.

Technical Analysis: A Fragile Foundation

Bitcoin's technical landscape is defined by a multi-year downtrend initiated in October 2025, with key resistance levels forming between $94,000 and $96,000. Traders are closely watching this range for a breakout that could redefine the asset's trajectory. A sustained close above $94,236 could trigger a retest of the $105,000–$106,000 zone, offering a glimmer of hope for bulls. Conversely, a breakdown below $83,712 risks reigniting the October downtrend.

The December opening range remains intact, with a definitive breakout expected to clarify Bitcoin's near-term direction. Immediate support levels at $85,929–$86,291 and $82,503 are critical for buyers to defend. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $85,204, a rebound toward $89,800 and beyond could materialize. However, a sustained close below this level would likely expose further downside.

On-chain data reveals a fractured market structure. The NVT Ratio's surge underscores a disconnect between social enthusiasm and actual network usage-a classic precursor to corrections. Meanwhile, the MVRV shift highlights the vulnerability of short-term holders, who are more prone to selling during profit-taking phases. This dynamic has historically led to sharp price declines, as seen in prior bear cycles.

Yet, not all signals are bearish. Long-term holders have resumed accumulation after months of selling, signaling renewed confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition. This accumulation has reduced sell-side pressure, potentially improving the supply-demand balance. Additionally, the hash rate has dropped by 4% in the past 30 days, a contrarian bullish signal that often precedes halving events and price recoveries. However, the current bearish environment may delay the positive effects of this decline.

The divergence between medium-term (1–5 years) and long-term holders is reshaping Bitcoin's market psychology. Medium-term holders have been net sellers, while long-term holders have absorbed distributed supply, creating a more resilient market structure. This shift suggests that cyclical traders are exiting, while fundamental investors remain committed.

The Fear & Greed Index has lingered in the "Fear" zone for weeks, a historically bearish indicator that often precedes inflection points in Bitcoin's price cycle. If institutional and corporate demand continues to outpace annual production (estimated at 164,250 BTC annually), a supply crisis could emerge in 2026, driving prices significantly higher. Advanced technical analysis supports a 2026 price range of $150,000–$200,000, with Fibonacci extensions and Elliott Wave patterns identifying key resistance levels around $145,000–$175,000.

The Path to $100K: A High-Stakes Scenario

For Bitcoin to reclaim $100K, buyers must first defend the $85,204 support level and push through the $94,236 resistance. A successful breakout would need to coincide with a reversal in the MVRV Long/Short Difference and a normalization of the NVT Ratio. However, the current on-chain environment-marked by short-term holder capitulation and elevated selling pressure-makes this scenario contingent on strong institutional buying or macroeconomic catalysts.

If the $100K target is achieved, it would validate the thesis that Bitcoin's supply constraints and maturing market structure are creating a foundation for multi-year growth. Conversely, a failure to hold key support levels could extend the bearish correction into early 2026, testing the resilience of long-term holders and the broader market's appetite for risk.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $100K rebound is a make-or-break moment for bullish momentum. The interplay of technical levels, on-chain metrics, and investor behavior will determine whether this becomes a turning point or a precursor to further declines. While the immediate outlook remains bearish, the accumulation by long-term holders and contrarian signals like the hash rate decline suggest that the worst may not be over. Investors must remain vigilant, as the next few weeks will be critical in shaping Bitcoin's trajectory for 2026.