Bitcoin's $100K Rebound in 2025: A Macro and On-Chain Analysis

The cryptocurrency market in 2025 has been a theater of contradictions. While Bitcoin's price has oscillated between $100,000 and $126,000, macroeconomic shifts and on-chain dynamics suggest a complex interplay of forces that could either propel the asset toward its $100K target or expose vulnerabilities in its valuation. This analysis synthesizes recent developments in central bank policy, on-chain metrics, and historical valuation patterns to assess Bitcoin's trajectory.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Central Banks and Inflation Dynamics

Central banks remain pivotal in shaping Bitcoin's macroeconomic environment. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a shift toward rate normalization to address inflation that has exceeded its 2% target for over three years. Governor Kazuo Ueda's coordination with government officials underscores a policy framework aimed at stabilizing inflation expectations, which could indirectly bolster Bitcoin's appeal as an inflation hedge. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces political pressure from President Donald Trump to adopt aggressive rate cuts, though Chair Jerome Powell has opted for caution, citing economic uncertainty. This divergence in monetary policy-Japan's tightening versus potential U.S. easing-creates a mixed landscape for Bitcoin, which historically benefits from accommodative policies but also thrives in environments of global inflationary stress.

On-Chain Metrics: Hash Rate, Transaction Volume, and Network Activity

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics in 2025 reveal a network at a crossroads. The hash rate surpassed 1,000 exahashes per second in early 2025, marking a historic milestone in the zetahash era. However, by November 2025, the hashprice had plummeted to $38.2 PH/s, the lowest in five years, suggesting a disconnect between computational power and price performance. This decline may reflect market consolidation after the 2024 bull run, as daily on-chain transaction volume dropped 23.1% to $24.6 billion in 2025.

Despite this, institutional participation remains robust, with regulated venues like CME Group capturing $8.9 billion of the volume.

Network activity surged during bull market peaks, with active addresses rising 50% to 1.5 million in April 2025. This surge coincided with Bitcoin's price reaching $88,800, highlighting the correlation between adoption and price. However, the drop in transaction volume raises questions about whether the market is maturing or entering a correction phase.

Valuation Metrics: NVT Ratio and Historical Comparisons

The Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio, a critical valuation metric, stood at 57.43 in 2025. This figure is significantly lower than historical peaks during the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, when the NVT ratio signaled overvaluation as market capitalization outpaced transaction volume. For instance, during the 2017 bull market peak, the NVT ratio highlighted speculative excess as Bitcoin's price surged to $20,000 while transaction volume lagged. A similar pattern emerged in 2021, with the NVT ratio peaking before Bitcoin's price correction.

In 2025, the NVT ratio suggests Bitcoin is overvalued relative to its transaction utility, but the gap is narrower than in previous cycles. This could indicate a more mature market where speculation is tempered by institutional adoption. However, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio remains elevated at 2.15 signaling that holders are sitting on substantial unrealized gains, a condition often preceding profit-taking and distribution phases.

Adoption Trends and Global Demand

Global crypto adoption in 2025 has accelerated, with the U.S. leading in transaction volume and South Asia emerging as the fastest-growing region. Stablecoins accounted for 30% of crypto transaction volume in the first half of 2025, reaching a record $4 trillion annually by August. This surge in stablecoin usage reflects Bitcoin's role as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralized ecosystems. However, the decline in on-chain transaction volume suggests that retail and institutional participants may be shifting to off-chain solutions, such as centralized exchanges, to execute trades-a trend that could dampen Bitcoin's utility-driven demand.

The Path to $100K: Balancing Optimism and Caution

Bitcoin's potential to reclaim $100K in November 2025 hinges on reconciling macroeconomic tailwinds with on-chain caution signals. Central bank policies, particularly in Japan, could provide a bullish backdrop by reinforcing Bitcoin's inflation-hedging narrative. Meanwhile, the hash rate milestone and institutional participation underscore the network's resilience. However, the NVT ratio's overvaluation and the MVRV ratio's elevated levels suggest that speculative fervor may be peaking.

Historical parallels to 2017 and 2021 caution against complacency. While the 2025 NVT ratio is less extreme than its predecessors, it still signals a market where price outpaces utility. Investors must weigh the likelihood of a continuation in the bull run against the risk of a correction akin to those seen in 2018 and 2022.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's journey to $100K in 2025 is neither guaranteed nor implausible. Macroeconomic catalysts and adoption trends provide a foundation for optimism, but on-chain metrics and historical valuation patterns demand caution. The coming months will test whether the market can sustain its momentum or if the forces of overvaluation and profit-taking will prevail. For now, the data suggests a precarious balance-where Bitcoin's potential to reach $100K remains within sight, but not without navigating a turbulent path.