Is Bitcoin's $100K Rally Still Alive Amid Bearish Momentum?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has become a battleground between bulls and bears, with the $100,000 target hanging in the balance. The cryptocurrency's recent volatility, driven by order block breakdowns, liquidity clusters, and macroeconomic headwinds, has left investors questioning whether the rally is intact or if a deeper correction looms. To assess this, we must dissect the technical and sentiment dynamics shaping Bitcoin's trajectory.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Order Block Breakdowns

Bitcoin's price has oscillated between two critical zones: the $93K–$91K resistance cluster and the $86K–$85K support area. The $93K level, a confluence of a declining trendline and a supply block, has repeatedly thwarted bullish momentum. On-chain data reveals this level is reinforced by the average cost basis of market participants, making it a formidable barrier. A failure to break above $93K risks a retest of the $86K support zone, which has historically acted as a stabilizing point.

Conversely, a daily close above $93K could unlock the $102K–$106K inefficiency zone, where the next major reaction is expected. However, the breakdown below $85K-a liquidity cluster-has intensified short-term liquidation risks, potentially dragging Bitcoin toward $83K or $80K. The $86K–$87K range has emerged as a pivotal decision point: a breakout could extend the rally toward $90K or $91K, while rejection would reinforce bearish bias according to technical analysis.

Sentiment and Liquidation Data: A Tale of Two Narratives

The recent liquidation data paints a stark picture. During the week Bitcoin broke below $93K, over $1 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated, exacerbating the downward spiral. This forced selling pressure, concentrated in longs, highlights the fragility of the current structure. Analysts like Colin Talks Crypto note weak momentum in Bitcoin's attempt to reclaim $93K, suggesting a base scenario of a $100K–$115K rally followed by a correction.

Yet, the broader macroeconomic environment complicates the narrative. A potential U.S. government shutdown and tightening liquidity conditions have drained dollars from the financial system, amplifying Bitcoin's selloff. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks has deepened, with institutional flows increasingly tied to AI sector dynamics. This interdependence underscores the importance of macroeconomic stability for Bitcoin's recovery.

Expert Interpretations: Diverging Views on the $100K Target

The debate among experts is sharply divided. On the bearish side, analysts like Crypto Patel argue that Bitcoin's clean breakdown below $93K signals a deeper bearish trend, with $76K as the next potential target. Ardi, another commentator, highlights growing short positions and liquidity shifts near $91.5K–$93K, suggesting downward bias.

Bullish scenarios, however, remain cautiously optimistic. Ratner's analysis points to an upward channel forming from the $84K–$85K support zone, with early bullish momentum if buyers push above $90K. Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital revised its year-end target to $120K, acknowledging Bitcoin's maturation into a high-beta asset with stable growth potential. The firm's adjustment reflects growing institutional adoption, with 55% of traditional hedge funds now including crypto in their portfolios.

Viability of the $100K Target: A Critical Juncture

Bitcoin's recent surge past $100K in July 2025, initially validated the target, fueled by spot ETF inflows and institutional demand. However, the subsequent pullback below key levels has raised questions about sustainability. Technical indicators like the stock-to-flow model and Fibonacci extensions still support $100K as a reasonable target according to market analysis, but the path forward depends on Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $93K and $86K.

The coming weeks will be pivotal. If Bitcoin stabilizes within an upward channel and breaks above $90K, it could regain bullish momentum toward $92.5K–$94K. A breakdown below $85K, however, would likely trigger a deeper correction. Seasonal trends-historically strong October and November returns-add a layer of optimism according to market data, but macroeconomic risks remain a wildcard.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $100K rally is neither dead nor guaranteed. The market is at a critical inflection point, with the outcome hinging on Bitcoin's reaction to $93K and $86K. While technical indicators and institutional adoption provide a bullish foundation, bearish momentum and liquidity risks cannot be ignored. Investors must remain vigilant, balancing conviction with caution as the crypto market navigates this pivotal phase.