Bitcoin's $100K Floor: A Critical Test for the Bull Case

Bitcoin's descent toward the $100,000 psychological threshold in November 2025 has ignited a fierce debate among market participants. This level, long considered a linchpin for the asset's long-term bullish narrative, now faces its most formidable test since the 2024 bull market peak. The confluence of on-chain metrics-short-term holder (STH) realized price, moving averages, and leverage dynamics-paints a complex picture of structural support and systemic fragility.

The STH Realized Price and SMA Confluence: A Structural Defense

The $100,000–$107,000 range has emerged as a critical battleground, where the STH realized price aligns with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This zone, historically a magnet for price stabilization during prior cycles, now serves as a dual-layer defense mechanism, according to the MEXC analysis. Short-term holders, who have offloaded 28,600 BTC at a loss, are increasingly pressured to either capitulate or absorb their own selling. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for STHs hovering near 1 underscores this indecision, signaling a market in flux.

Axel Adler's analysis reinforces this framework, noting that the STH cost basis and 200-day SMA confluence has historically acted as a "last defense" during bearish corrections. A breakdown below $110,000 would expose the $100K–$107K range as the next line of resistance, with the $92K–$93K zone potentially serving as a final fallback. This layered structure suggests that while the immediate outlook is bearish, the long-term trend remains intact-if institutional demand and macroeconomic conditions cooperate.

Technical Indicators and the 50-Week Moving Average

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin's test of the 50-week moving average (currently around $103,000) adds another layer of complexity. A decisive break below this level could trigger a cascade of algorithmic selling, accelerating the descent toward $100K. However, the 200-week SMA, which continues to trend upward and sits below the current price, provides a bullish counterpoint. This divergence between short- and long-term moving averages reflects the market's struggle to reconcile immediate bearish momentum with the broader uptrend.

Leverage Reset and Institutional Demand

The recent price correction has functioned as a controlled deleveraging event, a hallmark of maturing markets. Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures fell by $14 billion, with 93% of the decline attributed to voluntary position closures rather than forced liquidations, according to a Forklog analysis. This suggests that highly leveraged traders have been flushed out without triggering a systemic collapse. However, the sharp 90% drop in weekly inflows into major spot BTC ETFs-BlackRock's now below 1,000 BTC per week-highlights a critical gap in institutional demand, as a Coinotag report shows. Without renewed buying from large players, the $100K zone may struggle to hold, even with strong on-chain support.

Long-Term Holder Dynamics and Accumulation Phases

Axel Adler's on-chain framework also emphasizes the role of long-term holders (LTHs) in shaping Bitcoin's trajectory. Since July 2025, LTHs have distributed 810,000 BTC, reducing their holdings from 15.5 million to 14.6 million, per a CoinEdition analysis. This distribution phase, Adler argues, has capped upward momentum. However, historical patterns suggest that a shift from distribution to accumulation often precedes major bull runs. If LTHs begin reaccumulating after this cycle, it could signal the resumption of a long-term bullish trend.

Macroeconomic Catalysts and Sentiment Shifts

The $100K level's psychological weight is further amplified by macroeconomic factors. Upcoming U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory will play a pivotal role in determining whether this support holds. A surprise drop in inflation could spur risk-on sentiment, potentially pushing Bitcoin back toward $110K–$111K, as a Coinotag analysis suggests. Conversely, persistent inflation or geopolitical shocks-such as the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump-era tariffs-could exacerbate selling pressure, according to Coinotag breaking news.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for the Bull Case

Bitcoin's $100K floor is more than a number-it is a convergence of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic forces. While the immediate risks of a breakdown are real, the structural strength of the STH realized price and 200-day SMA confluence, combined with the potential for LTH reaccumulation, offers a path for bulls to reclaim the narrative. The coming weeks will test not only the resilience of this support level but also the market's ability to adapt to a new era of institutional caution and macroeconomic uncertainty.